Don't Expect Market Rally to Last: Pro
On Friday, buyers drove the Dow higher by triple digits as two major positives buoyed sentiment.
The jobs number came in much better than expected with new data showing in July employers added 163,000 jobs - the most workers in five months.
Also, commentary from Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was viewed as Spain taking a step toward asking the EU for a bailout, a development viewed positively by the markets.
"Yesterday, investors weren't too happy. Today, Europe was happy. Obviously, the employment numbers came in better than anticipated, and that added some positive fuel to the fire," says Ted Weisberg, a floor trader with Seaport Securities in a Reuters interview.
"What is more interesting is that we're within 200 to 300 points of recovery highs, which is pretty incredible when you think of all the issues we face."
Will the market re-visit those highs?
Not likely, says Jeff Kilburg, founder of Killir Capital.
“I don’t see the euphoria in the stock market reflected in the bond market,” he says.
Kilburg and the other pros often look to action in the bond market to confirm or deny a market move. And in this case – they say it’d been denied.
“There is no panic selling,” Kilburg says, “and there should be if there’s been a meaningful change in the market dynamic.”
In other words bond holders aren't selling out of their positions in mass - in expectation of a rotation in higher risk assets. That's something the pros would expect to see if the rally were sustainable.
Kilburg as well as many other pros often say the bond market is smarter than the stock market and the bond market is telling us, the rally is not for real.
“I’m still bullish Treasurys,” says Kilburg. “Bottom line.”
What do you think? We want to know!
Posted by CNBC's Lee Brodie
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Trader disclosure: On August 3, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Mike Murphy is long SBUX; Steve Weiss is long JPM; Steve Weiss is long CAT; Steve Weiss is long WLP; Steve Weiss is long HAIN; Steve Weiss is long QCOM; Steve Weiss is long HK; Steve Weiss is short AKS; Joe Terranova is long MINI S&P FUTURES; Joe Terranova is long VRTS; Joe Terranova is long MCD; Joe Terranova is long USB; Joe Terranova is long GS; Joe Terranova is long JPM; Joe Terranova is long YHOO; Joe Terranova is long SBUX; Joe Terranova is long WFM; Joe Terranova is long AAPL; Joe Terranova is long WMC; Joe Terranova is long NXPI; Steve Grasso is long ASTM; Steve Grasso is long BA; Steve Grasso is long D; Steve Grasso is long FRO; Steve Grasso is long LNG; Steve Grasso is long MHY; Steve Grasso is long MO; Steve Grasso is long NVIV; Steve Grasso is long PFE; Steve Grasso is long S; Steve Grasso is long XLU
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