Here's What'll Move Markets Next Month
Everything is two weeks away. That's the way it seems, with events that might move the markets. Lots of calendars are being passed around on the Street. Here's mine:
Aug. 20. 3.1 billion euros of Greek bonds due. Most seem to feel that the Greeks have the money to pay this. (Related: Wilbur Ross Says Greece Is Worse Than You Think)
Aug. 24. Spanish Cabinet meeting. Will they formally request aid from the EU? Spain will soon be receiving money for the bank bailout. There is already talk there that they will try convince EU authorities to use some of the 100 billion euros to buy Spanish sovereign bonds. (See: Sovereign Debt Explained.)
Aug. 31. Mr. Bernanke speaks at Jackson Hole...
Will there be a new program to buy Agency or mortgage-backed securities? Many think that the somewhat better economic news makes this less likely. As for the rest of the data, like jobs, well — stagnation is not a decline. Housing is getting better. And no one has yet articulated how the Fed as a group feels about acting so close to the election.
Sept. 1. ECB chief Mario Draghi at Jackson Hole. Seems like much of what he will say will depend on what, if anything, happens at the Spanish Cabinet meeting of the week before. Mr. Draghi made the procedure clear: a country must ask for aid. Then the EFSF/ESM can be activated, but only with "conditionality." (See: What is the EFSF?)
September 6: ECB meeting. We will hear of any further rate cuts, but more importantly under what conditions the ECB might revive its own bond buying program, the Securities Markets Program (SMP).
Sept. 12: German Constitutional Court rules on legality of ESM. Most feel this will pass muster, but there is some risk. If it is overturned or delayed, the burden of any request for aid from Italy or Spain would fall squarely on the shoulders of the ECB.
Sept. 12: Dutch elections. There is a good chance a Socialist government could be elected. This would strengthen the "pro-growth" camp and may make Germany even more cooperative.
—By CNBC’s Bob Pisani
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