Will 'Super Mario' Give the Euro Momentum?
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With European Central Bank President Mario Draghi skipping Jackson Hole, this strategist sees a trade.
If you're looking for market moving news around Labor Day weekend, you're probably in luck. The European Central Bank's president, Mario Draghi, has cancelled his appearance at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, andAmelia Bourdeau, director of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank, thinks it could be a sign.
"The market knows that easing is likely coming from the Fed, and easing is also likely coming from the ECB," she told CNBC on Monday. And Draghi's cancellation earlier today is reinforcing her view. "It seems as if the ECB has a lot of work to do to prep for the bond buying plan so it is more prudent that Draghi is doing that back in the euro zone," she told me.
Draghi vowed in July to do what's necessary to preserve the euro, Bourdeau points out, so bond buying by the ECB is in the offing - though it's unlikely he could have signaled that directly in Jackson Hole.
"Jackson Hole Friday-- this weekend -- is too close to the ECB's monetary policy meeting next Thursday (Sept. 6th), so Draghi would not have been able to say anything new at Jackson Hole given a blackout period ahead of the ECB policy meeting," she says.
Bourdeau thinks the bond buying stimulus may not happen at the bank's Sept. 6 meeting, but it could begin shortly after an expected mid-September ruling by the top German court on the constitutionality of the bailout fund.
So should you buy now?
"I think investors will buy EURUSD on any 50 pip pull back," she told me. But be careful of excessive investor jitters: "downside support levels to watch in EURUSD are 1.2450 and 1.2370-80," so if the common currency moves below those levels, stand aside.
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