5 High-Flyers At Risk of Falling: Greenberg
With the market having rallied so strongly since June, it’s only natural to ask: Which widely held high-flyers are at risk of falling?
There’s no single-best way to tell, but there are several ways find those at the most risk of losing their luster (if not their steam).
To make my cut, the company’s shares had to outperform the S&P 500 for the past three months. And their price-to-book value had to be higher than their peers.
On top of that, they had to generate good revenue and earnings growth with other metrics flashing good performance.
In other words, no matter what you may think of the company, the shares may merely gotten ahead of themselves.
Using screens from AnalytixInsight, which uses algorithmic computer-generated screens, I narrowed that list down to three: Rackspace (managed hosting), Lululemon (yoga clothes) and Polaris Industries (snowmobiles and all-terrain vehicles). Their stocks have shot higher despite slowing revenue and earnings growth relative to a year ago. (Read More: Cramer's 5 Retailers Poised to Push Higher.)
For the two additional stocks, I checked in with to Jeff Middleswart, who runs Behind the Numbers, an accounting research service.
Asked for a few names, he shot back: “That's easy” — Tiffany . Its stock is up 30 percent after missing and cutting guidance and its key growth markets are now negative.
“And CarMax ," he added. "It missed three quarters in a row and there simply are not late model used cars for them to sell. They’ve already seen flat-to-negative volumes and weaker margins several quarters in a row.” (Read More: Obama Good for Business: CarMax Co-Founder.)
My take: This doesn’t mean these stocks will tumble tomorrow, if ever, but all signs suggests fundamentals may have overshot reality.
—By CNBC's Herb Greenberg
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