Get Set for Upside Jobs Surprises
With a key manufacturing report sending risk currencies higher, this strategist is on the lookout for more data surprises.
This is a big week for economic reports, and Monday's ISM manufacturing index started things off with a bang. By sharply exceeding forecasts and landing in expansion territory, the index sent the dollar lower against most major currencies, and the Australian dollar was on a roll.
Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon , says the market reaction was telling. "Global markets reacted more strongly than expected to this second-order release, suggesting sensitivity to upside US economic surprises," he wrote in a note to clients. In other words, if other reports later this week come in significantly better than expected, currency markets could see more meaningful action. On Monday's news, the euro rose against the dollar and the Australian dollar rose against the yen.
The ADP employment report will be out on Wednesday, jobless claims are due on Thursday, and Friday will bring the latest nonfarm payroll report. Get ready.
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