It seems crude could fall further.
The price of crude oil dropped sharply Friday morning after seeing new swing lows and a close below the 200-day moving average. This market is poised for another leg lower, as the U.S. dollar is making new swing highs, and putting extreme pressure on commodity prices.
Brent crude slipped again on Thursday, posting its steepest monthly drop since October, having declined by around $7 a barrel in the last three weeks. To some traders on the floor of the exchanges in Chicago and New York, it seems as though crude will only continue to fall.
Stocks moved between small gains and losses Thursday, with the Dow within 100 points of hitting an all-time closing high, as investors digested a batch of mixed economic reports and following two days of sharp gains.
(Read More: Even in 'Weak Link' February, Rally Continues)
If the stock market continues to move higher, gold could continue to struggle.
In the last couple of days, we have identified a important correlation between the two. When the S&P 500 index plunged from 1,524 to 1,484 on February 25, we noticed a rush for safe havens, including bonds, the U.S. dollar, the yen and finally, gold.
(Read More: Gold On Track for Record Monthly Losses)
Gold traded above $1,600 an ounce on Tuesday, its biggest one-day gain in three months, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the U.S.'s bond-buying stimulus.
(Read More: CNBC Explains Central Banking)
Natural gas has been trading in a serious downtrend starting in November, but Monday's upside action constituted a clear breakout from that trend.
So what's behind the strength?
It's all about the Fed.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected to deliver his semiannual testimony on monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, followed by an appearance before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
Over the last couple of weeks, there has been a lot of talk about whether gas prices will hit the $5 per gallon mark around the country this summer. I think the probability of that is very low. There will certainly be isolated parts of the country in which five is the first number you see when you go to fill up, but even that should be short-lived.
Don't get me wrong — it won't be the days of $3 per gallon, either. I think the price you will see will be in the $4.20 to $4.40 range, but only for a few weeks, before it settles down to $3.90 to $4.10.
In a mixed inventory report, U.S. crude inventories beat expectations to rise 4.14 million barrels while U.S. gasoline inventories fell 2.88 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Agency reported on Thursday.
Gold fell to a six-month low on Wednesday, breaking through support at $1,600 an ounce, as investors were drawn to riskier assets ahead of a closely watched U.S. Federal Reserve minutes later in the day.
Signs of an improving global economic outlook sent equities to multi-year highs this week, making gold's safe-haven qualities less appealing.
DeAngelis is a CNBC Reporter and the host "Futures Now," only available on CNBC.com and devoted to the futures market.
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