Futures Now: Blog


  Monday, 12 Nov 2012 | 10:46 AM ET

What’s Ahead for the S&P 500?

Posted By: Anthony Grisanti

Last week was a tumultuous one for the S&P 500 index. As we look forward to this week, can we expect the market to do a quick turnabout — or will it drop like one of Mike Tyson's early opponents?

Here's what to look for.

When President Barack Obama won re-election over Republican challenger Mitt Romney last week, we saw the S&P drop 40 handles. I am not blaming the president for the sell-off. Rather, I believe the drop was more of a reflection of the reality of the "fiscal cliff" and the realization that tax increases and spending cuts are on the way.

(Read More: What Is the 'Fiscal Cliff?')

Trusting in the sanity of Congress is an act of insanity in itself.

»Read more
  Friday, 9 Nov 2012 | 1:56 PM ET

Is Oil’s Slide Done?

Posted By: Rich Ilczyszyn
Rich Ilczyszyn, a "Futures Now" trader and founder of iiTrader, takes a look at some key technical indicators. »Read more
  Thursday, 8 Nov 2012 | 9:22 AM ET

Top Trader: Levels to Watch on Gold

Posted By: Rich Ilczyszyn
Jon Boyles | Photographer's Choice | Getty Images

The overnight market took a pause after Wednesday's stock market selloff. Then, the Bank of England halted expansion of its bond-buying program Thursday, which leaves gold trading in the green this morning.

As I look at the gold chart, I will be watching the $1,712 to $1,709 support area. Gold is holding the two day recovery it enjoyed leading up to the election, as it relies on its safe haven attributes. However, with the dollar and Treasurys seeing continued support, downward pressure on commodities will make this an uphill battle for gold traders.

Part of this support could be coming from Greece. The country passed its budgetary vote in order to continue receiving its lifeline, which is not a surprise, but there was fear around the small chance that it wouldn't pass. With that problem seemingly resolved for now, investors might not seek the safety of gold. The $1,725 area continued to be resistance this morning, just as it was late in the day yesterday. However, if it does close above that level, momentum will be established and all bets are off.

So what's my trade?

The $1,709 to $1,720 levels is basically no man's land, and you can play either side of it. Above $1,725, I'm looking to buy. A close below $1,702 will be negative, and I'll look to sell.

Read on for 10 Things You Need to Know to Trade Futures

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  Tuesday, 6 Nov 2012 | 9:54 AM ET

Pro: Your Election Day Trade

Posted By: Rich Ilczyszyn
Rich Ilczyszyn looks at how the market might react to Tuesday's election. »Read more
  Monday, 5 Nov 2012 | 11:46 AM ET

What the Election Could Mean for Oil and Gas

Posted By: Anthony Grisanti

So what will the election mean for two of the most important resources we have: oil and gas?

Getty Images

Here's the quick and dirty.

I like to look at crude oil and gasoline together, because the factors that determine price movements affect the two commodities more or less equally. And in terms of the election, the outcome could help settle three key issues: production on private versus government land, pipelines and refinery regulation.

(Read More: Election's Final Stretch: Will Market Get What It Wants?)

If President Barack Obama wins, we can expect more delays in the development of public lands for energy exploration (forget about private, that's not on the table in my opinion). The Keystone Pipeline would still be in question, and future pipelines and refineries would face more regulation.

A victory by challenger Mitt Romney might mean an expansion of private and public land production, mainly because fear of regulation will be lifted. Most importantly, the Keystone deal would be pushed through. But that will not be enough to stem the rise in energy prices.

(Read More: Obama, Romney Are Near Even.)

Bottom line: Whoever wins, oil and gas are likely going higher. The real question is at what rate? The world is growing, and there simply isn't enough capacity to satisfy global demand. But if Romney wins, prices at the pump won't rise as fast as his policies could lead to more production.

Either way, no matter who wins Tuesday, I'm buying crude and gas on the dips.

»Read more
  Monday, 5 Nov 2012 | 10:04 AM ET

Pro: Sell Gold Ahead of the US Election

Posted By: Rich Ilczyszyn

Gold takes a front-row seat for the U.S. election. Many traders on the exchange floor are speculating that a Mitt Romney win could continue to strengthen the dollar and could cause further sell-offs in commodities, including gold.

Comstock Images | Getty Images

Whatever your political flavor happens to be, gold has firmed up a little since Friday's close, although the dollar is continuing to make new swing highs. Currently gold is trading just below $1,680 — so do we just ignore the fact that the precious metal that is still trading up roughly 7 percent this year? The 100-day moving average is at $1,672 and the 200-day moving average is at $1,670. Furthermore, the 50 percent retracement this year is at $1,666.50. This tells me that there could be buying interest at this level. (Read More: What You Need to See Before You Buy Gold)

Ironically, immediate uncertainty is actually keeping gold's rebound quiet. With the election a day away, dollar shorts are buying to close, helping a dollar rally. The European Central Bank has a policy meeting this week as Greece once again steals headlines. Japan is considering itself to be entering a recessionary stage, and China ushers in a new generation of leaders. All of this is supportive to the dollar, which means continued pressure on gold, as well as other commodities.

»Read more
  Friday, 2 Nov 2012 | 7:03 PM ET

What You Need to See Before You Buy Gold

Posted By: Rich Ilczyszyn

What's been going on with the price of gold lately?

»Read more
  Thursday, 1 Nov 2012 | 12:23 PM ET

Time to Buy Silver?

Posted By: Rich Ilczyszyn

All aboard the silver train!

Silver is building a solid congestion at a 38.2 percent retracement at $31.92. It also held the 200-day moving average at $31.14. Silver is seeing a positive trade this morning press it above $32.50, off of encouraging data out of China and ahead of U.S. data. As this market moves higher, there is room to see a run to $33.15.

If you have been long, I would recommend exiting by $33.10. If you are looking to get short, I am using $33.145 as my major resistance at the 50-day moving average. Resistance above there at $33.50 could even be a point at which to add or conservatively enter. Only a close back above the major 61.8 percent retracement at $33.95 will cause a short covering rally that could test the yearly highs.

So what's my trade?

BUY the dip and SELL the rip. I am buying the December silver futures at $32.25 with a $31.75 stop. My target is $33.15, which is at the 50-day moving average. Given that each point in the silver futures is worth $50, I am risking $2,500 to potentially make $4,500. Each point is silver futures is worth $50. Note that if the trade is not filled today, it will expire.

A final tip: If you want to reduce exposure, you can also use the mini-silver. Since the mini-silver is one fifth of the size, each tic move is worth $10.

Read on for 10 Things You Need to Know to Trade Futures

Watch "Futures Now" Tuesdays & Thursdays 1p ET exclusively on FuturesNow.CNBC.com!

Like us on Facebook!

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Questions? Comments? FuturesNow@CNBC.com

»Read more
  Wednesday, 31 Oct 2012 | 3:54 PM ET

Shiller: Housing Market Could Take 50 Years to Fully Recover

Posted By: Drew Sandholm

From housing starts to home prices, renowned economist Robert Shiller acknowledged "there are a lot of positive signs" for the U.S. housing market right now, but told CNBC Wednesday it's still unclear if a recovery is actually in place.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 31 Oct 2012 | 2:42 PM ET

Could Copper Show the Way to Recovery?

Posted By: Rich Ilczyszyn

Could copper show the way to recovery?

»Read more

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