Futures Now: Blog


  Friday, 6 Sep 2013 | 12:50 PM ET

Why bad news for workers is great news for gold

Posted By: Anthony Grisanti
Anthony Bradshaw | Getty Images

As soon as the jobs number came out on Friday morning, gold immediately shot $20 higher. This is a clear reflection of the number's weakness.

Nonfarm payrolls data showed that 169,000 jobs were added in August, compared with estimates of 180,000 jobs. And at this point in the recovery, 169,000 jobs is simply not good enough.

And while the unemployment rate dropped to 7.3 percent, that was because fewer people were looking for jobs. Incredibly, the labor force participation rate dropped to 63.2 percent, which is the lowest it's been since 1978.

(Read more: Gold has become a 'Humpty Dumpty' trade)

While I don't think this weak number takes a Federal Reserve tapering of quantitative easing off the table, it could certainly lead the Fed to taper at a slower rate.

Again, after five years of stimulus, these numbers are simply not where they should be. So why would the Fed scurry for the exit now, instead of tapering down its bond-buying program at a more manageable rate?

»Read more
  Friday, 6 Sep 2013 | 9:42 AM ET

Whoa: Three reasons why 7% yields are coming

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Forget Friday's bond rally off of the weaker-than-expected jobs report. Because while the 10-year yield dropped below 2.9 percent on Friday, Brent Schutte, market strategist at BMO Private Bank, says we've hardly seen the start of the rate rise. That would mean that bond prices, which move inversely to rates, have much further to fall.

"For all the talk of a cult of equities, I think there's a cult of bonds," Schutte said on Thursday's "Futures Now." "We had this great 30-year bond bull market that made people think there was no reason not to buy bonds, and that things were going to be OK."

But in Schutte's view, "4 percent (on 10-year Treasurys) somewhere around the end of the year to early next year would be a good intermediate-term level. And if you look over the longer term, I don't think that 6 or 7 percent is out of the question."

(Read more: US yields dip below 3 percent watershed after tame jobs data)

Schutte presented three reasons why a 7 percent yield wouldn't surprise him.

»Read more
  Thursday, 5 Sep 2013 | 3:21 PM ET

Top technician is sure that gold's going to $1,200

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Think you had a tough week? Don't go complaining to gold. The yellow metal has declined by almost 5 percent since last Wednesday's high—and RBC's top technician thinks it's about to get even worse.

"We're sticking on the bearish side for gold prices," said George Davis on Thursday's "Futures Now."

Davis, the chief technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets, thinks little of gold's 22 percent rally from the June low. "You are seeing a little bit of a corrective rally, and I think a lot of that has been driven by geopolitical risks emanating out of Syria," Davis said. "But we do think that those are going to be transitory, so the very short-term risks are going to pass."

(Read more: Gold has become a 'Humpty Dumpty' trade)

That's why Davis says it's high time to get short. "Valuations are starting to become more overbought at this juncture," he said. "I think there's a window of opportunity where you could leg into some short positions."

So what does he see on the chart that points toward lower prices?

»Read more
  Thursday, 5 Sep 2013 | 8:52 AM ET

Making money in stocks ahead of the jobs report

Posted By: Rich Ilczyszyn
Jonathan McHugh | Ikon Images | Getty Images

With Friday's all-important job number looming, stocks are likely to stay in a tight range. But bulls and bears alike still have the opportunity to make money.

Equities traded with bullish momentum early Wednesday, as they prepared themselves for the gauntlet of data. Momentum late in trading was supported by the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which showed a "moderate to modest" expansion in spending.

After holding major support at the line in the sand on Tuesday—the 1,629.25 to 1,631.25 level—the S&P closed above the 1,645 to 1,647.50 pocket. And on Wednesday, the S&P finished above the crucial 1,650 level.

(Read more: To taper or not taper—traders watch all things jobs for next Fed move)

»Read more
  Wednesday, 4 Sep 2013 | 12:52 PM ET

Gold has become a 'Humpty Dumpty' trade: Pro

Posted By: Jeff Kilburg, CEO and founder of KKM Financial
Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall ...
Steve Bronstein | Workbook Stock | Getty Images
Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall ...

Gold sentiment has certainly turned around in recent weeks. The market had been very bearish, but that was before gold rose more than 20 percent from its lows—a development that had bulls chirping that gold's "bull market" is back.

But as we see gold futures oscillate around $1,400, gold now resembles Humpty Dumpty—and it is imperative that it lands on the right side of this psychological "wall" in order to maintain momentum.

The Syrian situation should prove supportive of gold, but only because the idea that gold is a safe haven has regained traction among investors.

Gold bulls shouldn't get too confident, because gold could lose that "flight to quality" feeling again.

(Read more: Gold will face a rocky week; here's why)

»Read more
  Wednesday, 4 Sep 2013 | 9:04 AM ET

Marc Faber plays word association

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

What would it be like to get one of the market's most famous contrarians on the therapist's couch? Viewers found out on Tuesday's "Futures Now," when host Jackie DeAngelis played the classic word association game with Dr. Doom himself, Marc Faber.

The game itself is simple. When presented with a word, the participant responds with the first word that comes to his head. It's thought to provide insight into the subconscious associations that people make, but it can also be a great deal of fun.

(Read more: Here's what Marc Faber likes more than gold)

Here, then, are the terms Marc Faber was provided with—and his responses.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 4 Sep 2013 | 7:00 AM ET

Marc Faber’s three reasons why a plunge is coming

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

If you want to hear a rosy view on the market, you'd better not listen to Marc Faber.

The editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report has long held that a correction was coming—and even though that thesis has not exactly played out this year, he's standing by it.

"In my view, we'll go back to the lows in November 2012—around 1,343" in the S&P 500, Faber said. Overall, he considers U.S. equities a "better sell than a buy."

On Tuesday's "Futures Now," he provided three three main reasons for his bearish view.

Reason one: The U.S. will follow emerging markets down

It hasn't been an easy summer for emerging markets. In the period of a month and a half, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (which tracks emerging markets' large- and mid-cap stocks) lost nearly 20 percent of its value and has hardly bounced back from the lows.

That has made the U.S. market an outperformer, but Faber believes it cannot last. In fact, he said, U.S. equities could be hurt by their relative costliness.

"When emerging markets go down and the S&P goes up, the asset allocators say, 'Do I want to buy the S&P near a high, or do I venture back into emerging economies that are down 50 percent from their highs, like India or Brazil and so forth?' So you understand that the pool of money can flow back into emerging markets," Faber said.

»Read more
  Tuesday, 3 Sep 2013 | 2:57 PM ET

Here’s what Marc Faber likes more than gold

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Marc Faber has been a gold bull for a long time. In January, he told Maria Bartiromo that she was "in great danger" because she didn't own any gold, and on Aug. 8 he argued that "gold is relatively cheap."

With the metal up some 20 percent from its June low, however, the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report is changing his tune.

"The sentiment on gold has recovered," Faber said on Tuesday's "Futures Now" show. "It is relatively bullish."

After all, "we had a big rally in gold already," he said. "I think we will ease back a little bit."

(Read more: Gold will face a rocky week; Here's why)

Instead of gold, Faber recommends considering another classic safe haven: Treasurys.

"I think the sentiment is incredibly bearish about Treasury bonds and Treasury notes," he said. If the market drops, "people will again fear deflation, and they will move into 10-year Treasury notes."

(Read more: Marc Faber: Look out! A 1987-style crash is coming)

»Read more
  Tuesday, 3 Sep 2013 | 10:42 AM ET

If US bombs Syria, here’s how high oil could go

Posted By: Jeff Kilburg, CEO and founder of KKM Financial
A Syrian government forces' tank rolls in the Khaldiyeh district of Syria's central city of Homs.
STR | AFP | Getty Images
A Syrian government forces' tank rolls in the Khaldiyeh district of Syria's central city of Homs.

With the Syria situation still up in the air, the sloshing in oil will persist.

We have seen a $4 range in the Tuesday morning session, as oil continues to be ubersensitive to the Syrian news that drips out every few hours.

President Barack Obama has required congressional authorization in order to proceed with an attack, and that has certainly increased the volatility in the market, as it has added another catalyst to an already unsteady situation. Indeed, there is still little clarity regarding what the regional or global response would be to a limited U.S. attack, or a "slap on the wrist."

(Read more: As Syria boils, Obama looks to Congress for next steps)

»Read more
  Tuesday, 3 Sep 2013 | 8:34 AM ET

Gold will face a rocky week; here’s why

Posted By: Rich Ilczyszyn
Jeffrey Coolidge | Digital Vision | Getty Images

Russia reported overnight that ballistic missiles were fired in the Mediterranean, which led to some concerns that a strike on Syria could be getting underway. These launches turned out to be Israeli missile tests, but the bottom line is that until the Syrian sideshow is behind us, we can expect continued volatility.

(Read more: Russia raises alarm over Israeli missile test)

Gold found itself sliding into the open on Sunday night of the holiday session, reaching a low of $1,373.60. The market stabilized quickly, and hugged the $1,391.80 lows from Friday for most of this long session.

»Read more

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