Top technician Katie Stockton of BTIG says that the market is on the cusp of a big breakout, and she has two charts that explain why.» Read More
In a live interview on Futures Now , esteemed economist Robert Shiller, co-founder of the Case Shiller Index, expressed concerns about US housing even though new data suggests the recovery is well underway.
"Yes, there have been a lot of positive signs in housing," Shiller conceded in a live interview on CNBC, but it's only been that way for 6 months.
Commodities traders on Thursday were focused on the sharp move higher in the price of
. In early trade the price of WTI rose as much as $1.10 cents to $95.34 a barrel, at least a 4 month high.
The gains stem in part from new data which showed a surprise fall in crude inventory in the United States, which is the world's biggest oil consumer.
Specifically, U.S. crude stocks fell by 951,000 barrels to 360.3 million barrels last week as imports dropped - that's according to weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday.
iiTrader Founder & Chief Market Strategist Rich Ilczyszyn reveals key levels he's watching during Thursday's session to determine whether or not gold is trying to make a bullish breakout.
Gold pulled back to hold a higher low at $1676.2 Wednesday night as the market chopped around.
Today, gold must move through the $1684.9 highs, which is also where a secondary trend line sits. After hitting this wall all week,
futures and commodities
traders will start to get jittery and look to exit longs or outright sell without a further move higher.
Although U.S. lawmakers are waging a high stakes battle over how much the government can borrow, analysts told CNBC that a debt ceiling showdown may not have a cataclysmic effect on markets.
Barely two weeks after Washington narrowly steered the economy away from the "fiscal cliff" — mainly by postponing a resolution until March — some investors are already becoming rattled by the prospect of a new battle over the debt limit.
Is gold getting ready to rip?
Reports that Germany intends to repatriate the gold that is being stored at the New York Federal Reserve should be supportive for gold prices. The implication here is that trust in fiat currencies is being eroded by central bank involvement. Japan's recent policy change toward a weaker yen, coupled with the Federal Reserve's ongoing bond purchases, is making gold a more attractive asset.
Will WTI crude regain its status as the benchmark for crude prices?
About two months ago, the U.S. Department of Energy started using Brent crude as its benchmark for crude prices. It appears WTI could soon be the benchmark again, though.
Over the last several weeks, the spread between WTI crude and Brent has come in from Brent to being $23 over the WTI price to under $17 over on Friday.
It is no coincidence that this price movement has happened right at the time Seaway pipeline announced plans to expand capacity of the line that takes crude from Cushing, Oklahoma where WTI is delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. This pipeline is now carrying roughly 280,000 barrels a day and by the end of the month, the number could increase to 400,000 barrels a day.
Earnings season gets into full swing this week after a few notable companies released their quarterly results last week. This week promises to be much different, though, as quite a few large cap companies in the S&P 500 index are scheduled to report earnings in the days ahead.
Now why does a commodity trader care about earnings?
To start, the results will affect movement in both S&P and Nasdaq futures. It also gives traders a read on the mood of the country, how consumers are spending and how companies are preparing to move forward. In my opinion, all of will can effect prices and demand for commodities.
On Tuesday, home builder Lennar will make an earnings announcement. Look for copper to react to the results. The focus will then shift to the banks Goldman Sachs and M&T Bank scheduled to report on Wednesday, Bank of America set to deliver earnings on Thursday and an earnings report from Morgan Stanley on Friday. Elsewhere in the market, American Express will report on Thursday and General Electric to announce its quarterly results on Friday.
Bank earnings are expected to be OK, but with all the stimulus going on, I am not surprised by that. Record amounts of money have been flowing into mutual funds and confidence seems high, but with the debt ceiling debate firing up and earnings reports so far mixed at best, I think the market will have a hard time holding onto the gains that it's made since January 1.
As it stands now, the S&P is up against some major resistance and up against 5 year highs at 1,472.12. The March E-Mini contract shows resistance at 1,474 and 1,483 with support levels at 1,450 and 1,428.
Gold traded through major resistance at $1,666.5 yesterday – a significant level, because it's where the 200-day moving average hits. It went on to extend itself above retracement levels to reach a high of $1,678.8. This high runs into the resistance trend line from a falling wedge created by the highs and lows in November.
This morning we are seeing the gold market pull back and consolidate above $1,666.5. A close above this level is very important for the bull camp.
So that's the technicals. What else is driving the gold market?
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