How to Trade Chinese GDP
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China's GDP report is coming, and now you have a trading plan.
China's third-quarter GDP will be released Thursday, and the forecasts are glum. Meanwhile, the yuan is close to an eighteen-year high against the dollar. Could another interest rate cut be in the cards?
Not likely, say a slew of currency strategists.
Andrew Busch , global currency and public policy strategist at BMO Capital Markets, predicts that "they're going to keep the strong yuan for some time because it ups their ability to spend money, " and that will help the Chinese economy.
Amelia Bourdeau, director of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank, notes that a China is nearing a major political transition, which gives officials an incentive to reach for currency stability.
And Kathy Lien, managing director at BK Asset Management, points out that the U.S. will release its report on currency manipulation on Monday. "China frequently allows its currency to appreciate ahead of this report, " she told CNBC's Melissa Lee . "I think it's just strategic movements here."
How do you trade the likely yuan strength? It's complicated.
The dollar-yuan pair "is not readily traded, " says Lien, so she likes to use the Singapore dollar as a proxy. Singapore trades extensively with China and it is a major tourist destination for the Chinese. Also, it has a relatively tight labor market, Lien says, which raises inflation concerns. In fact, Singapore's monetary authority just issued a very hawkish statement.
So in the current environment, Lien wants to sell the U.S. dollar against the Singapore dollar, entering at 1.2250 with a stop at 1.2350 and a target of 1.2075.
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