Which Candidate Would Help, or Hurt, the Dollar
I hope you're primed to watch Obama-Romney III, the third and final debate between the two U.S. presidential candidates. This election promises to have a significant impact on currencies, what with the potential branding of China as a currency manipulator and talk of changing leadership at the Federal Reserve.
Closer to home, the question is what the election results will mean for the dollar . And just like the many contradictory polls on this race, currency experts are divided.
Andrew Busch, global currency and public policy strategist at BMO Capital Markets, told CNBC's Amanda Drury he believes that Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney's plan to end the corporate income repatriation tax. n his view, to lower corporate tax rates would help boost the dollar.
Then again, Rebecca Patterson, chief investment officer at Bessemer Trust, says an end to the repatriation tax would give the dollar less of a lift than a temporary holiday since "the capital just dribbles in over several years."
She is also concerned about Romney's plan to label China a currency manipulator, pointing out that "historically, when you go after currency manipulators, you start trade wars." The Republican's talk of not reappointing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke could also be an issue, she says, since it would create uncertainty in the markets.
Kathy Lien, managing director at BK Asset Management, is focused on which candidate's policies are most likely to promote growth.
The dollar has not demonstrated consistent performance after elections, she says, but recent research shows that stocks tend to perform better during Democratic administrations. According to Lien, that could mean the reelection of President Barack Obama could be good for risk-sensitive currencies — which by extension would further undermine the low yielding, safe haven greenback.
Todd Gordon, co-head of research and trading at Aspen Trading Group, says historical charts suggest that an Obama reelection could perpetuate a low dollar, high oil pattern of trading.
You be the judge.
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