Pro: Market-Moving Events to Watch This Week
GRZ Energy Inc. Founder & President
If this week is anything like the last, be prepared for a roller coaster of a ride. But did you know – despite everything that happened last week, the Dow still finished in slightly positive territory and the E-Mini S&P contract finished above a good support level of $1,417 - $1,414.
That being said, there are still quite a few markets that deserved to be looked at because they have lost significant value and are now near key support levels. Crude oil, gasoline, silver and the Nasdaq E-Mini are just a few.
Let's take a look at some of the key events coming up this week, in terms of how they can affect the markets I have mentioned.
The final presidential debate is scheduled for Monday night. It will focus on foreign policy. Governor Mitt Romney enjoyed a large bounce in most polls after the first debate and has held onto that gain after the second debate. So if Romney performs well in the final meeting, I think he could be looking at taking the White House from incumbent President Barack Obama.
(Read More: Obama, Romney Face Off in Last-Chance Debate.)
Without a doubt, a Romney win would be beneficial to the oil and natural gas industry, as he has stated he wants North America to be energy independent in eight years. This, coupled with the fact that a few major oil companies have applied for export permits for crude oil, could change the whole demand picture for WTI and to further extent, the price of Brent crude oil as well. I believe the reason Brent has been so high is more of a supply and production issue, rather than demand, given that production at those facilities has been dropping for years.
WTI did settle above $90 a barrel on Friday, but lately, the market has acted as jittery as actress Lindsay Lohan at a traffic stop. Frequently, WTI has made 3 percent moves.
If there is another round of bad earnings and the geopolitical front is quiet, look for crude oil to take another run at the $87.50 area. This has been major support and a proven place to get long. Let's see if it can hold again.
This will be another big week in earnings season, with the biggest name being Apple on Thursday. The Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures sold off extensively last week, and with Apple having such a big weighting in the index, their earnings will go a long way toward determining whether the slide will continue.
(Related: Buy Apple on Dip Before Earnings: Pro.)
Here are some fun facts to remember: Apple is about 13 percent of the Nasdaq 100 weight. It has only missed earnings twice before and one of those was last quarter. Before Apple reports, Yahoo and Amgen will announce earnings — their weight makeup is 3 percent of the Nasdaq 100.
Right now the NASDAQ 100 E-Mini is sitting above support at $2,658 through $2,650, and below that, the support is at $2,610.
Gasoline and silver both were hit hard last week, and are now both above areas that could signal major corrections in both.
I believe gasoline will hold these areas. I know about fourth quarter demand destruction, but with the refinery problems we have had, and the fact that some refineries have closed — plus demand slightly increasing (142,000 thousand barrels last week) and the fact that we have 8 million barrels less supply than last year — we should have enough to keep the market supported. Key support levels to watch are $2.60, and then $2.50.
(Read More: Why Gasoline Prices Are Likely to Rise Through Election.)
Silver is now on its way to the 50 percent retracement level from the low of the year it made in July, and the high of October 1. The level comes in at $30.76. Certainly if it makes it to that level I would be a buyer — not only for technical reasons, but for investment reasons, as we get closer to the "fiscal cliff" and no deal has yet been made.
(Related: What If Congress DOES Fix Fiscal Cliff?)
Some of the big names reporting earnings this week are:
Remember: Do your research and use your stops. It could be another wild ride.
Click ahead for How to Use Stop Orders
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