The U.S. election is - finally - almost upon us, and this strategist has a currency trade.
Ready for the election? If you live in a swing state and you've been inundated by political advertisements, the answer is probably obvious. But the Obama-Romney contest does present some trading opportunities.
In the world of currencies, the key question is what the election will or won't do to the dollar. Today's nonfarm payroll report boosted investor sentiment, especially coming on the heels of positive housing market news, and gave the greenback a lift.
"We are seeing some steady improvement," says Rebecca Patterson, chief investment officer at Bessemer Trust.
News that the government will release heating oil supplies to help Hurricane Sandy victims is also a plus.
Unfortunately conditions in Europe are rather different, says Brian Kelly of Shelter Harbor Capital. Kelly told CNBC's Melissa Lee hat "I actually think the dollar move today was less about the U.S. and more about the rest of the world." He says the Greek government "appears to be falling apart," and he is also concerned about Catalonia's push for independence from Spain. "There are some other crazy things going on besides this horrific storm."
So Kelly is edgy about where the euro is headed, and he wants to sell the euro against the dollar. The euro broke through recent support on Friday, he says, so he wants to sell at 1.2850 with a stop at 1.2950 and a target of 1.2500, which is a Fibonacci support level.
Jens Nordvig, head of fixed income research, Americas, and global head of currency strategy at Nomura Securities, is cautious about the trade's levels. He thinks a win by Mitt Romney would give the dollar a big lift, but he notes that capital flows out of Europe have slowed and he thinks it will be hard for the euro to move much below 1.2750.
MULTI CURRENCIES v The Dollar
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