The fiscal cliff is suddenly looming, and this strategist has a plan for whatever happens.
The prospect of the massive tax hikes and spending cuts known as the fiscal cliff is roiling all kinds of markets, currencies included. At the moment, the dollar is a beneficiary as investors look for a safe haven from the turbulence - but Brian Kelly of Shelter Harbor Capital says that won't last.
"This is not a crisis like we had in 2008, where it was a deleveraging crisis and people had to buy dollars to pay off their debts," he told CNBC's Melissa Lee. "Here we're looking at an economic, business cycle type of issue."
So how could the fiscal fracas play out?
One possibility is that the aggressive tax hikes and spending cuts that comprise the fiscal cliff actually come into play in January - what Kelly calls "a complete cliff dive, no compromise, no anything." That would lead to a sharp drop in GDP, Kelly says, and aggressive money printing by the Federal Reserve which "would lead to significant dollar weakness."
More likely, Kelly says, is that in the near term, some form of political compromise - or hope for compromise - will steer the country away from disaster. But the effect on the dollar would be the same, since a compromise would boost risk appetite and draw investors out of safe havens and also lead to dollar weakness.