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How to Trade the Pre-Thanksgiving Calm

Friday, 16 Nov 2012 | 7:50 PM ET
Brian Hagiawara | Brand X Pictures | Getty Images

We've seen some interesting times, to quote the Chinese proverb, for the yen this past week.

The Japanese currency has been buffeted by calls for early elections and aggressive monetary easing, and the prospect of both of those things coming to fruition suggest the yen's challenges may not be over yet.

Rebecca Patterson, chief investment officer at Bessemer Trust, sees yet another reason to trade against the yen.

"The U.S. market closed more stable today. I think that carries through to the Asian session Monday," she told CNBC's Melissa Lee. nvestors are cautiously optimistic that Greece will receive its next tranche of aid in the next several days, she says, and "it's a quiet market next week with Thanksgiving in the U.S."

All that should tamp down risk aversion, Patterson argues. "I think markets can stabilize a little bit," she says, which should help lift the euro relative to the yen.

More Pain for the Yen?
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Patterson recommended buying the euro against the yen trade earlier in the month, and the pair has moved in her favor. But she says there is still room for it to run. Investors who have her trade on should keep it on, she says, and move the stop to 103.00. For everyone else, she has a smaller, but still appealing, trade: Patterson suggests buying the euro against the yen at with a stop at 103.00 and a target of 104.50.

Todd Gordon, co-head of research and trading at Aspen Trading Group, likes the trade in technical terms. "It's certainly a range-bound trade," he says, and that's fine. "I think we're still in a low-volatility environment." He says that the October highs for the euro-yen pair were at 104.60, which supports Patterson's target.

Amelia Bourdeau, irector of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank, also likes the plan. She points out that in Japan, the opposition leader's calls for monetary easing are weighing on the yen, and "a rising stock market due to a weakening yen in Japan is good for him heading into an election, so I think that should keep on going."

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