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Economic Measures Inflation

  • Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius said the economy is entering a second slowdown phase and he expects a further decline in housing prices into next year. Today, he lowered his fourth quarter outlook to flat GDP, and he now expects two stagnant quarters - Q4 and Q1 - before the economy stages a sluggish recovery in 2009.

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    The dollar rose against the yen on Monday as the oil price's drop to a three-month low and some upbeat U.S. economic data generated optimism about the prospects of the broader economy.

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    With rising inflation and slowing growth, what's the Fed to do with this type of economic climate as they meet on Tuesday to decide the direction of interest rates.

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    New orders at U.S. factories increased by a greater-than-expected 1.7 percent in June, helped by a sharp gain in nondurable goods orders, a Commerce Department report on Monday showed.

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    U.S. consumer incomes rose at the lowest rate in over a year during June and inflation showed signs of accelerating.

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    The specter of stagflation will likely keep the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England from changing short term interest rates this week, and their hands may be tied for some time as economic growth slows but inflation remains high.

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    The main event this week is the Fed meeting on Tuesday and investors will tune in to see if Bernanke & Co. offer any insight on inflation. Plus, more earnings, including Cisco, P&G and AIG.

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    The surges this year in oil and food prices could not have come at a worse moment for the typical American worker, who has not had a raise to speak of in this decade. Still, the Federal Reserve’s policy makers - its governors and the presidents of its regional banks - are convinced that wage pressures could emerge unexpectedly, The New York Times reports.

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    The dollar first extended and then trimmed gains versus the euro Friday after a report showed manufacturing activity in the U.S. was better than expected in July.

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    A year after the credit crunch started what, if anything has changed, and more importantly what have banks learned? (Hint, not a lot.)

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    With jitters about employment impacting stocks, economists predict a loss of 75,000 jobs for July, the seventh straight month of payroll declines.

  • The jobs data is the make or break number for markets Friday. The monthly data, reported at 8:30 a.m., is expected to show a decline of 75,000 non-farm payrolls and an unemployment rate of 5.5%.

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    The US economy, desperately looking to stave off a recession, might find salvation in an unlikely place: volatile oil prices.

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    The dollar fell Thursday as news of a surprise jump in U.S. weekly jobless claims and below-forecast economic growth in the second quarter reduced prospects for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year.

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    An emergency dose of government stimulus helped the U.S. economy grow at a 1.9 percent annual rate in the second quarter, a soft pace but enough to take it off a path perilously close to recession.

  • Euro zone inflation jumped to another record high of 4.1 percent year-on-year in July as forecast, data showed on Thursday, but a bleak economic outlook may discourage interest rate increases this year.

  • Oil inventory data could be as much a factor for stocks as energy markets Wednesday, if the seesaw trade between the two markets continues.

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    Manufacturing activity in Japan rebounded slightly in July from a six-year low the previous month, but a slowing economy and rising energy costs continued to hamper operating conditions, a survey showed on Thursday.

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    The US economy probably grew modestly in the second quarter, but analysts believe Thursday's GDP report will mainly reflect the help from stimulus checks.

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    The dollar rose broadly Wednesday as a report showing that U.S. private sector unexpectedly added jobs in July raised prospects of an improvement in non-farm payrolls data Friday.