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International Organizations OPEC

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  • Energy prices were mixed yesterday. The liquids maintained Monday’s gains, but could not parlay them any higher. With a lack of macro releases this week, traders will be looking very closely at today’s DOE numbers. The crowd is looking for a 1.4 MMbbl build in crude oil, while last night the API reported a 1.1 MMbbl build. Meanwhile, natural gas gave up almost all of Monday’s gains — so much for the comeback…

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Crude Aiming for $100? Tuesday, 6 Apr 2010 | 12:30 PM ET

    Yesterday’s strength in crude oil price was not based on concerns of a shortage. Russia announced on Sunday that it produced 123.86 million tons of crude and gas condensate in Q1 2010, 3.2% above Q1 2009 and its highest output level since the breakup of the Soviet Union. OPEC is not willing to cut back its production in response...

  • Speculation Driving Oil Prices: Qatar Oil Minister Tuesday, 6 Apr 2010 | 11:33 AM ET

    Qatar's oil minister says crude's recent rally is driven mainly by speculation, not a shortage of supply.

  • Last week, for the first time since the week ending February 5, natural gas prices closed higher. The 5.5% rise was modest considering prices are 25.9% lower since the start of February, but at this point the bulls will take what they can get.

  • First things first: The President’s alleged reality check was highly recognizable a year ago. Be that as it may, we will put politics aside and cheer the White House’s rather abrupt 180° about-face; although, one does acquire a sense that the Administration’s heart is not going to be fully invested in this one. On its surface, the press release reads great…

  • Obama’s Offshore-Drilling Plan: A Start Thursday, 1 Apr 2010 | 9:32 AM ET
    off shore oil rig

    In some sense, I’m glad President Obama is opening the door to offshore oil drilling. But in the spirit of free-market deregulation, I do think that much, much more should be done in the Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, the Pacific, and Alaska.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Why We're Still Bearish Wednesday, 31 Mar 2010 | 12:48 PM ET

    Yesterday the S&P/CaseShiller 20 City Home Price Index for January was released, increasing 0.32% month-on-month to 146.32. In comparison, August last year saw a 1.08% increase in the index as buyers rushed to take advantage of an $8,000 tax credit due to expire at the end of November. Why does this matter for energy prices..?

  • Yesterday (Monday) saw the release of the latest consumer expenditure and income figures. The short story is bearish — total consumer spending was up but gasoline spending was down — (maybe?) bad news for the RBOB contract. The long story is more involved, as we attempt to account for the weather and the true state of the economy.

  • A break outside of our Confidence Interval often implies trend because a new external factor is influencing the behavior of the markets — whether that is the Total SA refinery workers striking in Paris or China altering the Renminbi’s peg to the dollar.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Goldman Sachs Adds Insult to Injury Thursday, 25 Mar 2010 | 10:47 AM ET

    Even by the White Houses’ own admission, it is reasonable to assume the unemployment rate in the U.S. will remain stubbornly high for at least the next two years.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Consumer Confidence Tied to VMT Growth Wednesday, 24 Mar 2010 | 12:19 PM ET

    The latest Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) figure published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) places January’s VMT at 222.8 billion miles, 1.6% below 2009 and 2.5% below the 2004-08 timestep. This is troubling when compared to values just a few months ago...

  • According to the latest EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly, net fuel ethanol production finished 2009 at a record pace, just as extreme winter weather hindered demand from the transportation sector. ... It was the third month-on-month increase in production in a row.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: The NatGas vs RBOB Paradox Monday, 22 Mar 2010 | 12:28 PM ET

    On Thursday the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged month-on-month and only 2.1% higher year-on-year, less than the 2.7% expected by analysts. ... Outside of the dollar context, the latest CPI figures also tell us about energy expenditure and the general state of the economy, and it appears the dollar was not the only bearish signal for commodity prices.

  • The table was set for a bearish EIA report, but analysts at The Schork Group (and apparently the Nymex) did not think it was going to be quite as bearish as 11 Bcf. Thus, it is now do-or-die for Henry Hub bears in the wake of yesterday’s 5.1% plunge in the futures.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Ayn Rand & California Thursday, 18 Mar 2010 | 1:57 PM ET

    As goes demand in California for transportation fuels, so goes demand elsewhere in the country. In this vein, stock builds in PADD V would seem to suggest that demand is suspect. With California’s unemployment rate at 12-1/2% (the 5th highest in the nation), analysts at The Schork Report do not think it is hard to understand why this is so...

  • Much ink has been spilled on OPEC’s meeting today (Wednesday). Another big concern is China’s upcoming interest rate shift. With a stronger than expected increase in the consumer price index (2.7% instead of 2.5%) for February, analysts are beginning to worry about inflation and over-heating...

  • Stocks Finish Higher as Fed Gives Market Lift Tuesday, 16 Mar 2010 | 4:02 PM ET

    Stocks picked up again in the final hour of trading after the Federal Reserve said it would continue to keep interest rates low for "an extended period."

  • OPEC's Influence Declines in Complicated Oil Market Tuesday, 16 Mar 2010 | 1:45 PM ET
    oil_barrels_money.jpg

    As OPEC ministers arrive for their Wednesday meeting in Vienna, most traders and analysts are more focused on charts than chatter, believing OPEC will leave current production quotas intact.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Recovery in Eye of the Beholder Tuesday, 16 Mar 2010 | 1:05 PM ET

    Recently we saw two important macro-economic releases: industrial production and advance retail sales. The former is a useful gauge for the strength of manufacturers while the latter considers the make-up of consumer spending. The Schork Report takes notice of the discrepancy here...

  • OPEC to Urge Members to Stick to Quotas Tuesday, 16 Mar 2010 | 9:28 AM ET
    Oil Barrels

    As oil ministers prepare to meet in Vienna Wednesday, there is little doubt that OPEC will keep production targets on hold.