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  • Schork Oil Outlook: Keeping Our Bullish Daily Bias Thursday, 27 Jan 2011 | 1:00 PM ET

    Yesterday (Wednesday), the DOE reported a 4.84 MMbbl build in crude oil inventories, blowing away analyst expectations of a 1.2 MMbbl build. The API had reported a (comparatively better) 2.12 MMbbl build on Tuesday night, and last year saw a 3.89 MMbbl draw for the same timestep, so surely the DOE’s number incited a sell-off, right?

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    The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee kicked off their first hearing of the new Congress with one of the most controversial topics in the energy sphere: the safety of deep water drilling.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: $100 Crude Oil? That’s So 2008 Tuesday, 25 Jan 2011 | 1:07 PM ET

    Bearishly construed rhetoric out of the Saudis overshadowed a plunge in the greenback. Consequently, the energy liquids complex took a header to start the new trading week.

  • Last Friday marked the 31st day since the solstice. Historically, this is when we see the coldest temperatures of the season in the Northern Hemisphere. In this vein, Mother Nature is coming through for heating BTU bulls.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Even China Has Limits Friday, 21 Jan 2011 | 2:55 PM ET

    Nymex crude oil tanked yesterday, falling at one point by more than 4% off of Wednesday’s high print. Bears were apparently spooked by the latest inflation figures out of China which showed another strong rise on both the wholesale and retail side of the economy.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Shorting the Trend? Remember Keynes Thursday, 20 Jan 2011 | 10:54 AM ET

    Well, we always expect a certain degree of variation when contracts approach expiration, and the Brent contract for February delivery did indeed go off the board on the 14th. However, this month’s fluctuation was especially sharp and, if rumors on the grapevine are true, due in part to a single trading firm.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Is +$90 Oil Dangerous? Wednesday, 19 Jan 2011 | 11:37 AM ET

    Prognostications by Wall Street’s best-and-brightest [sic] aside, the IEA clearly does not think $95 oil, let alone $100 is fundamentally justified this year. We agree, but in fairness to our friends on the Street, the IEA appears to be talking out of both sides of its mouth.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Bulls vs Demand Fundamentals Tuesday, 18 Jan 2011 | 11:05 AM ET

    Be that as it may, spot prices are entrenched well below the $5 mark. That is all you really need to know in regard to the pathetic state of this market.

  • An anecdote from the Fed's Beige Book dovetails with what we have been seeing in the LPG markets (especially propane and ethane) since October. Fractionation spreads or fracs (margin between LPGs and natural gas) have been trading at highs, ≈$10 per MMBtu for propane and ≈$4.5 per MMBtu for ethane, not seen since the 2008 bubble.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Bullish Data? Sorry, No. Wednesday, 12 Jan 2011 | 12:56 PM ET

    We just saw a massive draw in crude oil inventories last month in the U.S. and yet the market is now paying you to take even more barrels off of the spot market.

  • Crude oil supplies in PADD II Midwest (inclusive of the Nymex hub in Cushing, Okla.) have been trending higher over the last two months. At the NYMEX hub alone inventories have risen for eight straight weeks by a total of 5.7 MMbbls or 18%. Consequently, supplies here finished 2010 at the 7th highest recorded level, 37.5 MMbbls, since the DOE began disaggregating the data for Cushing in 2004.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: What Wall Street Got Wrong Monday, 10 Jan 2011 | 10:24 AM ET

    By now, we know Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) fell well short of market expectations.

  • Yesterday (Thursday), WTI prices fell 2.13% while the USD strengthened 1.13% against the Euro. On cue, analysts and talking heads began to raise the WTI/USD inverse correlation argument to explain the price movements. Not so fast.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: GM, Gasoline and the Crude Booms Thursday, 6 Jan 2011 | 12:09 PM ET

    Be that as it may, there is a large consensus that crude oil is headed to $100 this year. That translates into around $3.30 for the U.S. consumer at the pump…and that could translate into a headache for GM’s shareholders.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: It's Oil Bears' Turn Wednesday, 5 Jan 2011 | 11:39 AM ET

    While the natural gas market consolidated yesterday after Monday’s moon-shot, crude oil bears assumed the spotlight on Tuesday. The spot market for February WTI dropped 4.6% (peak-to-trough) through the first two sessions of 2011. However, bearish momentum yesterday stalled just below the midpoint, 88.83, of a congestive range from the first half of December.

  • Schork Outlook: Does Natural Gas Have Staying Power? Tuesday, 4 Jan 2011 | 12:49 PM ET

    Counter to the historical tendency for Nymex natural gas values to peak in the fourth quarter, the spot market in New York kicked off the first quarter yesterday by surging 6½% to a new winter high, 4.689. This event was likely spurred by two factors.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Odds Favor $100 Crude Monday, 3 Jan 2011 | 11:01 AM ET

    Aside from Friday’s end-of-year surge, spot crude oil on the Nymex has gone nowhere since analysts at The Schork Report switched their daily trading bias into Neutral on December 07th.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Has NatGas Peaked for the Winter? Friday, 17 Dec 2010 | 11:49 AM ET

    With winter bearing down on key natural gas markets in the Midwest and East, the Nymex Henry Hub gas contract has never looked weaker. Yesterday the spot market for January delivery plunged by nearly 5% after the EIA reported a 164 Bcf drawdown in inventory last week. Mind you, there was nothing bullish about the report, i.e. a 164 Bcf draw is on the extreme of the seasonal norm.

  • According to the latest revelation from WikiLeaks, an official (name redacted) from Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela (PdVSA), complained to visiting U.S. economic officers last February that China was profiting handsomely from a sweetheart deal between Caracas and Beijing.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: What Comes Out in December... Wednesday, 15 Dec 2010 | 12:08 PM ET

    Fourth-quarter crude oil supplies in the U.S are defined by two distinct phases.