CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC calculate the new median quarterly GDP tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists and how much the new data changes it. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes with incoming data.
Aug. 16, 2023
GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change
| Consensus | 2023Q2 |
|---|---|
| Median (total) | 4.9 |
| Low and highest median estimates to date | 3.9 to 4.1 |
| # of Estimates | 2 |
| # of Estimates received today | 2 |
How 2023Q3 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt
| Change in 2023Q3 GDP tracking estimates, annualized % change, ppt | Median |
|---|---|
| Vehicle sales (July) | 0 |
| International trade (June), CPI (July) | -0.7 |
| Business inventories (June), retail sales (July) | 0.9 |
| New residential construction (July), industrial production (July) | 0.3 |
GDP forecasts, annualized % change
| GDP forecasts, annualized % change | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moody's Analytics Baseline | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics