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Leaked Numbers Indicate Trouble for Fox's Eragon!

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20th Century Fox has been building buzz about what's meant to be this year's Lord of the Rings style epic -- Eragon, about a flying Dragon and a farmboy -- is serious fantasy.

But based on tracking numbers I've just been leaked, 20th Century Fox may be bracing itself for a disappointment. The film cost an estimated $90 million and they're spending tens of millions on marketing the film -- but awareness is low.

Tracking numbers are the polls the studios use to get a sense of what kind of buzz there is about a film before it opens -- how much people recognize the name of the film and whether they know what it's about -- and most importantly, if they want to see it.

Eragon is NOT tracking as well as you'd expect for such a huge film.

The "unaided awareness" (the number of people who know what it is without prompting) is 7%, and total awareness (people who know what it is after prompting) is just 55% *(studios would want more like 75 %). And the number of people saying it would be their first choice to see this weekend was 7%.

A big investment -- and a hope for a Lord of the Rings style hit -- that may fall flat.

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