Geoff Cutmore - Morning Thoughts

Correction Around the Corner?

"If the market's going up, why am I so worried?" That sounds like a question from a self-help group. It encapsulates a lot of the viewer feedback we are receiving on "Squaw Box" at the moment.

The broad consensus (at least from my judgement) is that the markets are due a near term pullback of the order of 5% to 10%. In fact, a large part of the market appears to be hoping it will happen. Couple of reasons, once it has happened and is out of the way, asset managers can restart position building for what is seen as a largely positive year.

A 'correction' would also encourage those who have not enjoyed great returns but have watched enviously from the sides a better level to enter a trade.

Given it is becoming the desire of market participants, it is, I suspect, going to be less convincing an event than desired. Isn't that always the way with the market? Its twists and turns seem designed to create maximum discomfort for the largest number of people.

Psychologists argue that there is greater pain inherent in missing out on market gains than incurring losses. If that is true, I suspect any declines will draw in the money on the side that has not participated, so far, in the upside. This will temper the depth of any correction. We shall see.

Thursday's guest host Bob Parker sees the possibility of weakness for Equities. Short term, he believes they're technically stretched but should outperform over 2007. Near term, there will be some opportunities in the government debt market, with the 10-year Treasury yield moving to 4.65%.

Useful discussion about China and India with the manager of a new fund,

Jonathan Schiessl. The Chindia fund (yes, it is really called that) will invest in those two economies, but has a slight bias towards China at this time. Jonathan thinks India looks a little rich right now -- but both offer a good long term growth story.

CEO of the morning? Probably Ben Verwaayen at BT. He is really reshaping this company, and this mornings numbers on Broadband market share and top line revenue continue to show the work is paying off.

Feedback welcome - here.