Geoff Cutmore - Morning Thoughts

Can You See Where This One Ends?

We had a great discussion on "Squawk Box Europe" this morning about clarity of vision -- as in do we now have a good understanding of the depth of this credit event?

Steve Sedgwick generated a lot of feedback by arguing the problem is becoming clearer as the days pass. He ventured that there could be some feeding of money back in to the equity markets as valuations become enticing.

We had a lot of viewer e-mail taking issue with that notion and pointing out the extent of exposure still remains opaque. And so it does. The stories we are chasing now are focused on where the withdrawal of liquidity shows up next. Aircraft leasing finance?  Funding for infrastructure projects? Corporate investment? We just don't know. But we do at least understand the game we are in and that in any market correction there is a buying opportunity.

David Bloom, yesterday's guest host, and fund manager Mark Tinker, from this morning, both say it is not now. Yet each is skeptical that this selloff will have any major impact on global growth at this point.

Useful conversation with the Norwegian government oil fund  -- basically one of the models for the sovereign wealth fund. We are long-term investors the spokesman at the finance ministry said, and we just recently raised our allocation to equities from 40% to 60%. And what are they doing as markets fall? We'll probably be adding to our position, we can see value here, he noted cheerily.

We had a good conversation with Pimco's Bill Gross last week about the bond market and the credit-related buying. It plays out tonight at 10:30 pm Central European Time. If that is too late, it will be available for download from the Web at It was produced for squawk outside the box.

Feedback welcome - here.