By the Numbers

Chesapeake Tuesday Political Futures

Maryland, Washington, D.C., and Virginia vote today in the Chesapeake primaries.  The Intrade market ( is predicting that McCain and Obama will sweep today's election.  According to Intrade, both McCain and Obama are most likely to receive the nomination from their parties.

With a substantial delegate lead, McCain has a 94% probability of getting the GOP nomination, a 7% increase since last week's Super Tuesday primaries.

Intrade gives Obama a 71% probability of getting the Democratic nod versus 29% for Clinton.  Going into Super Tuesday last week, Obama had a 47% probability and Clinton had a 53% chance of success.

The Associated Press/Ipsos poll predicts that Obama would narrowly beat McCain 48% to 42%, while McCain and Clinton are running somewhat even at 46% to 45% respectively.

The Rasmussen Reports' daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows similar data to the AP poll in that McCain is leading Clinton in the presidential election 45% to 43% and that Obama leads McCain 44% to 40%. (

For today's primaries, Intrade is projecting a sweep by McCain and Obama:

  • Maryland — Obama is showing a 90% probability of winning for the Democrats while McCain has a 94.2% chance of success for the GOP.
  • Virginia — Obama is showing a 91% probability that he will win Virginia while McCain has an 86.1% chance of victory.