S&P 500, NASDAQ RISE FOR A FOURTH DAY
The headline: Stocks Finish Mostly Higher as Consumer Outlook Falls to 35-Year Low
This was a good day for the bulls, Jeff Macke said. The market had every excuse to sell of, or even just take profits, but it didn’t break. Put Tuesday in the books as a “good enough” win, Macke said.
GOLD REGAINS SOME LUSTER
The headline: Gold Closes Up 1.8% as Selling Finally Stops
Tim Seymour is a commodities bull when it comes to the “stuff you can use” like steel, coal and iron ore. Those materials are booming – even the cement players are gaining traction. The infrastructure build out in emerging markets as it relates to the materials stocks is showing that it is strong enough to combat the weak economy at home.
Jeff Macke, also a materials bull, recommended U.S. Steel . The stock has posted its second rally in a row, so investors can take their time getting in if they’re cautious, he said.
Pete Najarian urged caution in U.S Steel and the other steel stocks. These are great names, he said, but they have made huge runs. Be aware of the ranges they are trading in before establishing any positions, he advised.
TAKE YOUR POSITION: ORACLE
The headline: Oracle to Report Earnings Wednesday After the Bell
Jeff Macke believes Oracle will have no problem beating its earnings Wednesday. The stock has effectively priced in the beat, so any additional pop will come from its guidance. If you’ve caught the gain, Macke thinks it wouldn’t hurt to trim a little profit.
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AFTER HOURS ACTION: CLEAR CHANNEL
Clear Channel, down 20% after hours, deserves more downside than that if the deal is, in fact, broken, according to Karen Finerman. She wouldn’t be surprised to see it trade at $20 if the deal doesn’t go through.
Pete Najarian thinks the deal has probably collapsed, as the WSJ reported. Looking at the options action, he found that trading accelerated late in the day around when the news came out. Investors went all the way to the April $25 strike calls, which paints a picture that people are worried, he said.
It’s no surprise that the private equity folks look like they are trying to get out of the deal, Jeff Macke said. He doesn’t believe CCU’s business is something anyone would want. Now, it seems, those involved are just looking for the cheapest way out. The honeymoon is over on the private equity side, Macke said.
This just shows that merger-arbitrage is not a great place to play right now, according to Tim Seymour.
RISING SUN, FALLING CONFIDENCE
The headline: Japanese Government Survey Shows Business Sentiment at Record Low
The yen strength is weighing heavily on Japan’s economy, Tim Seymour said. After all, the country’s confidence factor is built almost entirely on its export market.
Considering the Nikkei peaked in 1989, Jeff Macke isn’t at all surprised about a record low sentiment.
THE SEEDS OF A SURGE
The headline: Monsanto Soars More Than 10% After Raising Profit Forecast; What’s the Trade Ahead of U.S. Crop Report Monday?
Roger Neshem, a North Dakota farmer, told Fast Money that he expects an “exciting year in agriculture” as corn comes of its highs and wheat prices increase. Farmers have more money to work with this year, he said. Expect plenty of volatility as crop conditions vary wildly throughout the country, he said.
Tim Seymour noted that wheat is a short cycle crop, meaning it can be replanted relatively quickly. With global demand where it is, that’s good news for companies that work with wheat farming. Seymour is bullish on Monsanto, even after its 10% spike Tuesday.
Pete Najarian had another way to play it. The booming agriculture stocks are benefiting the railroads, like CSX , that haul the goods. A chart of CSX illustrates the stock’s monumental climb over the past few years. Considering it still has pricing power, Najarian sees no reason to think that run will stop anytime soon.
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Trader disclosure: On Mar.25, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (YHOO), (INTC); Najarian Owns (AAPL), (CSCO), (ETFC), (MS), (MSFT), (NOK), (TSO), (XLF), (YHOO); Najarian Owns (COP) Calls, (BSC) Calls; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (HD); Finerman's Firm Owns (MO), (MO-W),(MSFT), (PM-WI), (TSO), (VLO), (YHOO), (SUN), (AAPL); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (SPY), (COF); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BX), (CSCO), (DELL), (F), (INTC), (MER), (TMA), (TSO); Seygem Asset Management Owns (IBN), (CX) (TTM); Charles Schwab Is A Sponsor Of "Fast Money"; NBC Universal Is The Parent Company Of CNBC
Roger Neshem Owns (DE), (AGU), (ARII)