Geoff Cutmore - Morning Thoughts

Why History Says Sell the Dow

Geoff Cutmore

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme," said Mark Twain.

The technical analysts are getting very excited about the Dow pattern this year.

Some of them see very strong similarities with the 30-year cycle of price movements.

Learning from Dow's History

And if they are on the right track, then the Dow is a short-term buy for a run-up into the third quarter and then it is down from there.

Edward Loef’s interview this morning is worth dipping into – the technical analyst from Theodoor Gilissen Bankiers took us through Dow charts from 1918, 1948, 1978 and finally 2008 so far.

He believes there is a clear connection between the price action over these different periods – his message is that the fourth quarter of this year will be a weak one for the Dow.

Technical analysis elicits strong responses from investors – they tend to love or loath the idea that historic price action has any predictive value.

What do you think? Do you 'buy into' the notion of repetitive 30 year cycles? We run a daily technical spot because we know some people like to analyze price action and look for patterns – give us your feedback on the spot at

Your feedback always welcome - here.