Trader Talk

Has Market Thrown Off Oil "Tyranny"?

Appropriately, the stock market rally hit a top the minute oil stopped trading at 2:30 pm ET. It was a strange day: a surprising draw-down in crude oil inventories was met by an equally surprising selloff in oil, and stocks continued their modest rally.

All this caused bulls to say that the market was finally shrugging off the oil tyranny which has dominated stocks for the past two months.

It's far too early to call a top in oil(we tried this with oil at $120 at the end of April; the shorts got killed the following week), but certain trends, including dollar strength, decent economic news (revised Q1 GDP up 0.9 percent, not great but not a recession either), a continuing bond decline all helped bulls.

Then there's those commodities. Not clear if energy commodities are in a top, but certain other commodities are clearly looking toppy.

Commodities (from highs):

Copper down 10.7% (hit high in April--base metal inventories are up in London)

Gold down 12.7% (hit high in March)

Aluminum down 9.2% (hit high in March)

Materials and energy stocks were the notable losers today.

One final point: note the big move down in solar stocks today, with names like Yingli Green down over 10 percent. Some are saying this weakness is giving confirmation to this down move in oil.

Questions?  Comments?