Worst Expected State Budget Gaps
The economic crisis has taken a toll on nearly every corner of the American economy, including the financial position of US states. With tax revenues decreasing and spending on the rise, some states are considering drastic measures.
In the most recent state budget report from the National Conference of State Legislatures, the highest estimates for the 2010 budget gap demonstrate how bad the situation could get.
States with the worst positions are ranked here according to the percentage of expected budget gap compared to state general funds. Also, for comparison, we include the most recent available tax revenue numbers (FY 2007) from the US Census Bureau.
With the help of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), many of these states already are off their highest FY 2009 budget gap estimates.
So, which states are potentially facing the worst 2010 budget gaps? Here are the 15 with the most to make up.
By Paul ToscanoPosted 9 June 2009
15. Wisconsin
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $2.500 billion
Percent of General Fund: 17.2%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $528 million*
Percent of General Fund: 3.8%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $40.164 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $21.461 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates are off the highs and predict a $0 budget gap.
14. Oregon
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $1.600 billion
Percent of General Fund: 18%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $755 million*
Percent of General Fund: 10.4%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $30.587 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $11.303 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates are off the highs and predict a $0 budget gap.
12. (Tied) Hawaii
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $1.134 billion
Percent of General Fund: 19.8%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $424.6 million*
Percent of General Fund: 7.4%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $11.176 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $5.959 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates remain at highs.
12. (Tied) Louisiana
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $2.020 billion
Percent of General Fund: 19.8%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $341 million*
Percent of General Fund: 3.5%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $33.286 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $14.251 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates are off the highs and predict a $0 budget gap.
11. Washington
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $3.645 billion
Percent of General Fund: 19.9%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $1.189 billion*
Percent of General Fund: 6.9%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $47.030 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $21.058 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates remain at highs.
10. New Jersey
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $7.151 billion
Percent of General Fund: 20%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $3.300 billion*
Percent of General Fund: 10%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $65.495 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $51.384 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates are off the highs and predict a $0 budget gap
9. Illinois
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $7.289 billion
Percent of General Fund: 21.2%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $4.317 billion*
Percent of General Fund: 13.7%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $71.255 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $54.535 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates remain at highs.
8. Connecticut
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $3.968 billion
Percent of General Fund: 21.4%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $1.353 billion*
Percent of General Fund: 7.9%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $25.492 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $23.836 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates are off the highs and predict a $747.1 million budget gap.
7. Vermont
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $238 million
Percent of General Fund: 21.5%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $63 million*
Percent of General Fund: 5.3%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $5.437 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $3.052 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates are off the highs and predict a $0 budget gap.
6. California
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $24.789 billion
Percent of General Fund: 22.3%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $14.771 billion*
Percent of General Fund: 14.1%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $299.948 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $114.701 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates are off the highs and predict a $3.434 billion budget gap.
5. Florida
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $6.000 billion
Percent of General Fund: 27%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $3.175 billion*
Percent of General Fund: 12.3%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $95.044 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $36.331 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates are off the highs and predict a $706.3 million budget gap.
4. Arizona
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $3.006 billion
Percent of General Fund: 28.2%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $2.020.7 billion*
Percent of General Fund: 20.1%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $29.875 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $9.546 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates are off the highs and predict a $436.5 million budget gap.
3. Alaska
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $1.350 billion
Percent of General Fund: 30%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $1.520 billion*
Percent of General Fund: 21.0%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $12.477 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $6.533 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates are off the highs and predict a $746 million budget gap.
2. New York
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $17.650 billion
Percent of General Fund: 31.9%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $1.707 billion*
Percent of General Fund: 3.4%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $178.908 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $110.084 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates are off the highs and predict a $0 budget gap.
1. Nevada
Highest Estimate FY 2010 Gap: $1.200 billion
Percent of General Fund: 32%
Highest Estimate FY 2009 Gap: $337.0 million*
Percent of General Fund: 10.5%
2007 Total Tax Revenue: $14.183 billion
Debt at end of FY 2007: $4.143 billion
*Current FY 2009 estimates are off the highs and predict a $0 budget gap.