Shares of Mosaic surged higher on Thursday, but the move was triggered by more than renewed interest in the ag trade. What’s got this stock going?

Investors were betting that Mosaic could grab $56/share after one of Brazil’s largest newspapers reported that Vale, the world's largest iron ore miner, may bid for the fertilizer company.

Global interest in fertilizer has risen sharply in the last couple of years, with a very small group of companies controling about 75 percent of global supply of potash and the price has until recently remained stubbornly high.

"From a big-picture perspective it fits with Brazil's stated strategy of becoming self-sufficient in fertilizer," says Morningstar analyst Ben Johnson. "Mosaic would be the best fit in terms of the assets that are out there, given that they have got substantial potash and phosphate assets and a distribution network that is already in place."

However, that’s not to say it’s a done deal. Cargill control 444 million shares and they might not be for sale. "We believe Cargill has a constructive longer-term outlook for phosphate and potash fertilizers, and thus is an unlikely seller of Mosaic from a strategic view," Bank of America analyst Felipe Hirai wrote in a research note.

"Cargill does not need the cash, as its balance sheet is stronger than it has been in many years. Given Mosaic's market cap neared 60 billion a year ago, we believe any bid for Mosaic that would interest Cargill would have to be much higher than the reported $25 billion."

What’s the trade?

I think the trade in Mosaic is over, counsels Jon Najarian. However, I’d look Agrium , Potash and Intrepid Potash.

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