Kudlow's Corner

What’s Your Year End Dow And Second Half Real GDP Forecast?


We asked our panel:

What’s Your Year End Dow And Second Half Real GDP Forecast?

Here are the final results from the caucus members (averaged predictions):
Dow 9,400
GDP 1.2%

The Kudlow Caucus Breakdown

10,500, GDP: 2.5%
Jerry Bowyer Chief Economist, Benchmark Financial Network
During the first half of the year, revenues were flat and costs were dropping, so profit improved. During the second half of the year, revenues will rise slightly and costs will be flat so profit will improve again. 2009 will be the year of the twin calves. Each will likely be worth about a thousand points, hence at 10,000 Dow and a 2.5% GDP growth rate. GNP will be even better.

Dow 9400 GDP: 1%
Keith Boykin Fmr. Clinton White House Aide / The Daily Voice Editor
The Dow will spike up near 11,000 this year before correcting itself back down to 9400 by the close of the year. That's still up for the year and up significantly from the low in March.

With the markets stabilized and unemployment at a peak, we will begin to see modest growth by the fourth quarter as businesses begin hiring again.

Dow 9700, GDP: .75%
Vince Farrell Scotsman Capital Management
Q3 GDP will be up a bit. Usually rebounds are much stronger, but with capacity utilization so low and the consumer savings rate rising like it is, the rebound will be muted.

The Dow will finish 5% above where it is now. We are probably ahead of ourselves in the market with the underlying fundamentals being as they are. So I would think a setback of up to 10% followed by a year end rally .

Dow 8500, GDP: 0.5%
Doug Kass Presidnt, Seabreeze Partners Management
The domestic economy will disappoint in the second half as growing joblessness weighs on personal consumption expenditures - serving to reduce consumer confidence and raise savings rates further.

The credit after shock will continue to haunt the economy and a number of non traditional headwinds (e.g. continued government intrusion into the private sector and the specter of higher marginal tax rates) will raise the probability of an economic double dip in 2010. .

Jim Lacamp – Dow 10,500, GDP: .2%
Jim LaCamp Senior VP, Portfolio Manager
Macroportfolio Advisors
Co-Host, Opening Bell Radio Show, Biz Radio Network
The market has recently shown an increase in volume and a slight expansion in leadership. This suggests we still have some room on the upside. After a bout of profit taking in the September time frame, look for a higher year-end move.

GDP will be lucky to be modestly positive for the second half. Estimates from the administration have been consistently too aggressive.

DOW 10,000, GDP: 0.5%
Joseph Lavorgna Fmr. Reagan Economic Advisor
Chief Investment Officer, Laffer Investments
Spreads got to pre-Lehman levels. Why can’t stocks go back to pre-Lehman levels? We’ll see downward revisions to back orders which will coil the springs for a larger second half rebound. GDP is likely on its way higher than 0.5%, but we’ll know more after tomorrow.

Dow 9500, GDP: 2%
Donald L. Luskin Chief Investment Officer, Trend Macrolytics LLC
Stocks have rebounded from end-of-the-world levels, but are nearly fully valued for the macro, political and profit environment.

The economy will rebound from low comparables – the recession is over. The Depression never was. But we are now in a “repression,” a macro environment constrained by the costs and side-effects of the rescue and stimulus efforts of the past year, and the continuous threat of anti-growth policies and taxes .

Dow 8500, GDP: 2%
Steve Moore Sr. Economics Writer, The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board
Obama-nomics is a drag. Where does the growth come from? Other than government?

Dow 9300, GDP: 2%
James Pethokoukis
Money & Politics Columnist
I think the economy comes out of recession in the second half but with so-so growth, much like the period after the 1990-91 downturn. High unemployment, lackluster earnings and consumer anxiety are all headwinds. And Washington politics isn't helping, either. To say the least.

Dow 8500, GDP: .5%
Robert Reich
Former Labor Secretary
Professor of Public Policy, UC Berkeley
We’re seeing a little bit of a rally based mostly on hope rather than economic fundamentals. GDP will grow a bit largely because inventories have to be replaced and consumers have to replace durables. But none of this is anything to write home about.

Dow 9,000, GDP: 1%
Noam Scheiber
The New Republic
We’re basically going to be sideways the rest of the year. I think real GDP growth will be about 1 percent in the second half (1.5 percent in Q3, then back to .5 percent in the fourth quarter, as 10 percent unemployment crimps spending and state budget cuts take their toll). I’d guess the Dow will be right at 9,000. I suspect it’ll keep rising for the next few months, but at some point we’ll have a mini-panic in the financial sector as commercial real estate losses pile up and residential foreclosures spike up again, which will temporarily drive it back under 9,000.