Call it the 'Correction Cliffhanger'. Just how will this equity rally end? Pundit after pundit says a correction is coming anytime now, but what is the final sign of this top?
Many thought the rally in the so-called trash names like AIG and Fannie Mae would be the final sign of out of control buying euphoria that marks a top of a stock rally. But the S&P 500 went higher still, hitting a fresh 11-month high as recently as last week. And even AIG has continued higher.
Perhaps the jubilation over the weakening of our own currency is the final capitulatory straw? These days, like today, the dollar goes lower and the stock market goes higher. Commodity producers, whose product is priced in dollars, and international conglomerates like Procter & Gamble, whose products are getting cheaper to overseas buyers, have led this recent push upward.
"It is rare that the equity markets follow the dollar in lock step as it has over the last few sessions, which implies we are no longer trading on fundamentals but on dollar sentiment," said Brian Kelly, founder of Kanundrum Research and frequent Fast Money guest."Our concern is that the fundamental rally has run its course and the final leg will be a a weak dollar fueled rally."
While waiting for the equity rally to end, Kelly isn't sitting idly by, but putting a trade on to bet against the dollar. He is buying the CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust , which tracks the movements in the pound.
As for other signs of a top, Joe Terranova, FM trader and chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, said on our morning call that he believes one giant rally day on strong volume (perhaps the Dow through 10,000) that sucks in the final retail buyers will be the sign that a correction is finally about to come. (You can click here to read Joe's blog.)
The other side to all of this is that no significant correction is coming. The dollar may continue to weaken, but in an orderly fashion, followed by some stabilization . The 'trash' names like AIG may roll over, but they will be replaced by new, more stable leaders such as health care companies, many of which are nearing 52-week highs. And the overbought condition of the market will be worked off by some weeks of consolidation around these levels. Now wouldn't that be a boring end to this correction cliffhanger? None.
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Trader disclosure: On Sept. 22nd, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Seymour And Seygem Asset Management Own (MTL); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (VALE); Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Najarian Owns (C) Calls; Najarian Owns (JPM) And Is Short (JPM) Calls; Najarian Owns (MS) And Is Short (MS) Calls; Najarian Owns (MSFT) And Is Short (MSFT) Calls; Najarian Owns (PALM) Calls; Najarian Owns (RNWK) And (RNWK) Calls; Najarian Owns (SII) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (WFC) Put Spread; Najarian Owns (YHOO) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (FCX) And Is Short (FCX) Call; Najarian Owns (CELG); Najarian Owns (CLX) Calls; Terranova Owns (WFT). (F); Terranova Owns (F) Calls And (F) Puts
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