Trader Talk

More Despair for Shorts


So much for the correction.

Days like this show you the opportunity cost of being in cash. The S&P 500, at 1057, is just a little more than 1 percent from the September 22nd closing high of 1071.

This, after a drop of...a measly 5 percent. The worst correction we have had since the March bottom was the 9 percent drop between June and July. All other "corrections" have been in the 3 to 5 percent range.

What about the double dip? Fact is, everyone talks about it, some strongly believe it, but go into the world where people actually have to make a published bet-economists, or stock pickers, and the consensus is it's possible, but they're not betting big on it.

Why do I say that? Because the consensus among economists is for 2010 GDP growth of 2 percent. Where are the double dippers here?

And in the world of stock pickers, most say: what's the alternative of selling all or part of your stock portfolio? Getting out of market in a flat market is often not worth it. Not when Treasuries yield between 0.9 percent (for the two-year Treasury) and 3.2 percent (for the 10 year). Corporates are not much better.

And even if stocks move sideways, just holding stocks will get you a 2-3 percent dividend.

No wonder shorts are so miserable. 



Questions?  Comments?