The S&P 500 index will move to a new high, then correct, but the correction won't be large, independent trader Bill McLaren told CNBC Friday.
"If this rally can carry to a new high, considering the cycles, that should set in a top or set up the probability for it," McLaren said. "We're more likely for a new high."
"If this index moves to new highs, I think it will be at risk," he warned.
"We're looking for this run-up to terminate," McLaren said when looking at the chart for the S&P 500 index.
He said he doesn't expect a huge correction, just something "to consolidate the move up from the March low, maybe even since the July low."
"This could also consolidate with a large sideways move," he added.
"A weak U.S. dollar is bullish for stocks," McLaren told "Squawk Box Europe." The dollar's "new low" should be watched closely, he added.
"This is either a capitulation or a panicked move down, or we're going to get a little false move in the rally, maybe a surprisingly fast rally. And U.S. stocks are going to react accordingly," he predicted. "If it can't break away now, that would reverse everything."