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Fast Money

Paulson Betting Unemployment Not Getting Much Worse?

Widely followed investor John Paulson just revealed an interesting and perhaps meaninful position in one of the nation's largest banks. In fact, traders are buzzing about the latest 13F filing from this Wall Street Whale.

That's because it shows Paulson held 300 million shares of Citigroup valued at $1.45 billion on September 30th.

Off the Record

Why is that a big deal?

Because big investors who are long Citi may be betting that the economy is getting better and that we have something more than a jobless recovery, speculates CNBC's Charlie Gasparino.

That’s because when unemployment goes beyond 10.5%, consumer loans start to decline at such a rapid pace those losses overwhelm most any other positive catalyst -- and investors turn bearish on the stock.

So this Citi position may suggest that one of the smartest guys out there – John Paulson – believes that unemployment won’t go much higher.

If you expect a V-shaped recovery, then Citi is a buy, Gasparino concludes.

What do you think about Charlie Gasparino's theory? We want to know!

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Trader disclosure: On November 16th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (GE), (INTC); Finerman Owns (RIG), (FLS); Finerman's Firm Owns (CSCO), (RIG), (MSFT), (NOK), (PLCE), (TGT); Finerman's Firm Is Short (USO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (WMT); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (UNG); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC), (BAC) Call Spreads; Finerman Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC); Finerman's Firm Owns (FLS), Is Short (FLS) Calls; Terranova Owns (GS), (JPM), (SU), (AAPL), (GOOG); Terranova Works For (VRTS); Terranova Owns Dec. Crude Oil . Futures; Terranova Owns Dec. Gold Futures; Terranova Owns Dec. Nat Gas Futures

For Brian Kelly
Kanundrum Capital Owns (ELX)
Kelly Owns (ELX) Calls with wires

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