With so much euphoria in the market, are investors simply unable to see that trouble is lurking on the horizon?
According to Doug Kass – the celebrated bearish strategist – a correction isn’t a possibility – it’s a probability.
We know that’s a dire prediction, and we hate to get all doom and gloom on you - but Kass has been spot on – in fact he’s among the few strategists who accurately called the stock market bottom back in March.
And beyond that – Kass’ prediction also illustrates an extremely important point. There's a really wide array of opinions circulating on the Street. We mean really wide.
It was only yesterday that the popular Raymond James strategist Jeff Saut told Fast Money not to worry about a correction – because it’s not coming. (He thinks the market is ‘correcting’ now in a sideways fashion and is about to skyrocket higher. Click here for more on that.)
But let’s get back to Kass. He finds predictions like the one from Jeff Saut exasperating. And he writes about his exaspiration in his regular column on The Street.
He says, So, there's going to be a meaningful return to jobs growth in 2010! Really!?!”
And what happened to the previous forecasts that job creation would emerge in fourth-quarter 2009? I mean, really!
The credit mechanisms of the shadow-banking system and the securitization market remain adrift, and banks aren't lending. An economic recovery without credit? Really!?!
How about the state and local governments that have provided an anchor to growth in previous economic periods? Only two states have balanced budgets, and New York is letting out prisoners early to save money. Really!?!
And I imagine retail sales are going to firm up into a better-than-expected Christmas season? Really!?!
Kass is being cheeky but his point is clear. “I think there’s some whistling past the graveyard," going on in the market right now, he says.
"Warning signs are being ignored or are being rationalized away. Investors are all but ignoring the sorry state of small business and the consumer.”
As we said above. Kass is known for being a bear.
What do you think? We want to know!
You can see Fast Money's interview with Doug Kass at the end of the Word on the Street video above.
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Trader disclosure: On November 18th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Seymour Owns (POT), (NUE), (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (GE), (INTC), (FXI), (VIP); Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Finerman Owns (FLS); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (NOK), (PLCE), (TGT), (WMT), (DRI); Finerman's Firm Is Short (USO), (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (UNG); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC), (BAC) Call Spreads; Finerman Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC); Finerman's Firm Owns (FLS), Is Short (FLS) Calls; Najarian Owns (DELL) Calls; Najarian Owns (EXPE) Calls; Najarian Owns (FXI) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (INTC) & (INTC) Calls; Najarian Owns (LAZ) & short (LAZ) Calls; Najarian Owns (MCD) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (RIMM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (QLOGIC) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (TXN) & Short (TXN) Calls; Najarian Owns (YHOO) & (YHOO) Puts; Najarian Owns (BG) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (TXN) & (TXN) Call Spread
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