"This is the most despised bull market in history," Cramer said on Wednesday, "Eventhough the charts don't lie, nobody believes... Most important, everyone is mistrustful and in disbelief that we can ever go higher."
But in this 'despised' bull market, which stock do investors find the most untrustworthy? None other than Amazon.com , says Cramer, who identifies the stock as one of his favorites. With a 243% increase in the stock's price over the last year, a rise that saw the stock surpass its all-time high, investors get skeptical. But Cramer thinks this is unfounded and that Amazon's upward trajectory is both logical, probable and most importantly, profitable... as long as you play it right.
How can Cramer be so confident in patterns of this stock? Because, naturally, he's seen it before. Amazon had a huge run in between April 1998 and April 1999, rising from $6.75 to $104.56 (a 1,449% gain) in just one year, which turns out to be an average pop of 1.3% each day.
But to get to the bottom of Amazon's story, we have to go inside the numbers and see whether the stock really is set for gang-buster growth. Cramer says that if a stock can expect 30% growth, big money managers will raise their eyebrows and take notice. After the company has been growing at a 25% clip, reports from Cyber Monday also showed that Amazon saw a 44% increase in visits compared to last year, making the 30% growth rate entirely possible, says Cramer.
Taking into account the growth rate and future earnings, which expect to be $3 per share in 2010, but based on increased traffic, Cramer sees the potential for the stock's earnings to be in the neighborhood of $3.60. With this number, Cramer sets the high price for Amazon at $216 - a price above which he would think the company would be too expensive, a level 74 points above where the stock is currently trading.
Although the logic may be baffling, Cramer would bet on the company up to $216 with these expected future earnings and interest in its product.
Cramer's bottom line: Although you may be skeptical, this is how the big managers play these companies and Cramer sees a fair value for the stock at $216, and sees a potential move to the upside of 74 points.
For Cramer's full analysis, check out the video!
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