The latest data from S&P/Case Shiller’s monthly report showed that home prices are still improving. But David Goldberg, building and building products analyst at UBS, said the group is still overvalued by 10 to 15 percent. What does this mean for the homebuilder stocks going forward?
“When we talk to builders on the ground, the majority of what we hear is that prices have stabilized—not necessarily increasing,” Goldberg told CNBC.
“So I think if you see prices coming up in the Case Shiller [report], it’s probably overly optimistic. …Things have stabilized, there’s some reason for optimism because of that, but I wouldn’t go too far and read too far into that.”
Goldberg said he is not investing in the homebuilders yet and remains on the sidelines.
“We’re expecting a gradual recovery in fundamentals, very slow home price appreciation and no big spikes that would change our thesis too much at any one time," he said.
"Buy" Rating on Toll Brothers
"Neutral" Rating on Beazer Homes
"Neutral" Rating on Hovnanian Enterprises
"Neutral" Rating on Standard Pacific
"Neutral" Rating on KB Home
"Neutral" Rating on Lennar
"Neutral" Rating on Ryland Group
"Sell" Rating on Pulte Homes
"Sell" Rating on D.R. Horton
"Sell" Rating on Meritage Homes
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Goldberg does not own shares of BZH, HOV, KBH, LEN, MTH, RYL, SPF, or TOL.
However, he has investment banking clients who own shares of DHI and PHM. Additionally, DHI and PHM are, or within the past 12 months have been, clients of UBS Securities and non-investment banking securities-related services are being, or have been provided. Within the past 12 months, UBS Securities has received compensation from DHI and PHM.