By the Numbers

Earnings Preview: Alcoa By the Numbers

Earnings season gets its unofficial start this evening with the release of Alcoa's fourth quarter earnings.   Analysts are expecting 6 cents per share compared to last year's loss of 28 cents and the stock is trading up today. Here are some facts and figures to help you going into earnings season.


  • Beat Revenue estimates for 8 straight qtrs

  • Beat EPS estimates last two qtrs

  • Since Q1 '08, has beaten EPS estimates only 3 of 7 qtrs

  • Has not beaten annual EPS estimates since 2006

  • After the last 10 earnings announcements, Alcoa's share price has fallen 6 of 10 times and on average, trends downward for about 18 days before recovering (per

  • The Dow has gone up the day after AA earnings, 3 of the past 4 times

  • Dollar impact? in 2008, 47% of revenue was outside of the US.  China news today is helping lift AA.

  • Commodity impact?  Aluminum was up 19% in Q4 on the London Metals Exchange and is up over 4% YTD.

Materials Sector:

  • Up 5% YTD (2010)
  • Leaders YTD: AK Steel (AKS) +17%, Titanium Metals (TIE) +16%, US Steel (X) +15%
  • Best Sector from November 1 through now, up 19%
  • Up 45% in 2009, Up 7% in Q4
  • 12% of Friday's new 52-wk highs on the S&P were from the Materials sector (tied for 3rd best sector)

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