Right now, stock prices have become unhinged from their underlying earnings, Cramer said, pushed around by forces that have little to do with fundamentals. For this reason he thinks it’s a trader’s market, designed for people who want to play short-term moves. But what about the homegamers who are trying to think long term?
Take the oil service stocks, as represented by the Oil Service HOLDRs ETF , as an example of this dilemma. The group has been sold and shorted aggressively because of falling oil prices since the beginning of the year. Yet, Cramer said, oil companies only care about how much money the oil and gas producers spend on drilling, getting at resources in harder-to-reach locations and that business is good.
So the Mad Money host is going Off the Charts to explain why technical analysts believe the sellers have taken control of the OIH and will keep driving this index lower most likely until it falls to $103, a $15 decline from where it is now.
The daily chart of OIH shows it has fallen though the Dec. 30 swing point, making the next swing point the new price target for chartists. Cramer told viewers to think of swing points like pivots, meaning when you break through a previous one, you are going “down, down, down.” And to make matters worse, he said, analysts see signs that large traders and hedge funds are heavily shorting the OIH as it declines on great volume, which indicate sellers are pressing their positions.
Yet, technicians see a glimmer of hope if OIH were to trade down to $103 on lower volume without falling through it. On the other hand, if OIH falls below $103, then it could go even as low as $85.
Since the sellers are driving down the OIH, Cramer said, investors should get out of their way. Most people cannot take the pain of this decline, so they will fulfill the chartists’ predictions and blow out as the OIH goes down. According to this thinking, Cramer said, investors should use today’s rally to sell it into strength.
For this reason, the charts are giving investors an opportunity to buy low. But, Cramer said, you don’t want the ETF, you want the best stock in the ETF. And right now that stock is Schlumberger, which is by far the strongest oil service company. SLB reported a great quarter and its CEO endorsed good long-term numbers around the world because national oil companies have to drill. Plus, the company does a lot of business in Iraq and would benefit from the possibility of a pick-up in US natural gas.
All that said, Cramer would not buy SLB right now until the chartists give a better entry point. The stock is going to get driven down with the others in OIH as the index gets hammered by short sellers and falls to $103. Cramer thinks you should use the fear of the chart readers to create value and price in order to buy SLB safe and sound.
The bottom line: Buy the best name in the sector at a discounted price. “Let the pain and panic,” Cramer said, “of the traders create a great investing opportunity for all you homegamers.”
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