With the euro cracking, Greece rioting, and the Dow tumbling, what’s an investor to do?
Stocks plunged on Thursday after a general strike in Greece triggered new worries about that nation’s debt crisis -- and how the ripple might impact, banks, multinationals and more.
How should you be positioned now?
I’m adding to my short in Europe, says veteran trader Gary Kaminsky. I think trouble in Greece spreads across Europe. And I’m playing it with a long position in EPV .
And if you want a play here at home, I’m concerned about American multinationals. Some of them have huge exposure to Greece and Europe, adds Kamninksy. Take a look.
S&P Companies With Largest % of European Sales
Exxon Mobil 38%
General Electric 24%
Johnson & Johnson 26%
Dow Chemical 13%
Source: Howard Silverblatt, S&P
I honestly believe that come April these companies will take down guidance, he says.
If you want to play Europe short, I agree a great way to do it is with the EPV, adds OptionMonster Jon Najarian. And I agree that we’re connected; in other words if Europe is going down then the American markets will go down too. I expect to see more selling pressure than optimistic buyers here in the US.
I agree that Europe gets worse, echoes Fast Money trader Guy Adami. I think the EPV goes to $27.56. And I also find it very hard to get bullish on US equities in this environment.
Cool down, counters Steve Cortes of Veracruz. I don’t think things are as bad as the market action suggests. European banks are trading relatively well. With Spain the next market in play, I’m watching the action in Banco Santander , he adds. I think the action in the banks tells us that things are not as bad as the sell-off in the euro would otherwise suggest.
DEVELOPING STORY: GOLDMAN SACHS & GREECE
What is in a name? Plenty if that name is Goldman Sachs.
The company has been blamed for everything from global warming to the advent of typhoid.
We’re poking some fun, however on a serious note, an unflattering article in today's New York Times links Goldman to the financial crisis in Greece in a way that’s triggered increased scrutiny.
Now Ben Bernanke says the Fed is “looking into a number of questions relating to Goldman Sachs and other companies related to their derivatives arrangements with Greece.”
The rhetoric has some thinking the company's reputation is costing investors money.
What must you know?
I don’t think Goldman did anything illegal, says Sanford Bernstein analyst Brad Hintz but lately we’re holding banks to a higher standard. Did they conduct themselves appropriately? Or was the action troubling? It’s a gray area. But it impacts client relationships. Some big investors will choose to deal with other brokerages rather than say “I don’t want to have to explain this one, to my board.”
In other words, Goldman will probably lose business, he adds. I’d adjust estimates to reflect the fact that Goldman may have a less buoyant revenue line.
I don’t buy it, counters Guy Adami. I’m hard pressed to think that people are going to run and hide from GS in this environment.
I’m a seller of in the money calls in Goldman, says Jon Najarian. I think this issue is a weight on the stock for at least a quarter.
I’m a buyer if the stock can get above $160, adds Steve Cortes.
EAR TO THE WALL: GOLD
Gold reversed course on Thursday and made a move higher on speculation China may buy this precious metal from the IMF.
What’s the trade?
Gold held at $1065, reminds Guy Adami. Where there’s smoke there’s fire, but I just find it hard to believe that China jumps in right now.
INSIDE THE CONSUMER WITH ONE OF THE BIGGEST MALL OWNERS
Analysts and CEOs are always great fountains of information. But when the smart money wants to make a bet on either commercial real estate or the retail consumer, they talk to David Henry, the CEO of Kimco Realty.
As the biggest out-door mall owners in America, he has a front-row seat to both the consumer and the state of commercial real estate market.
What does he have to say about the recovery? Watch the video and find out now!
WHALE WATCHING: IS BERKSHIRE OVERBOUGHT?
What is the world's greatest investor doing? That answer will come Saturday when Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway releases its annual report.
What must you know ahead of the event? Few people follow Buffett more closely than Whitney Tilson, managing partner at T2.
I’m a buyer of Berkshire, says Tilson. I think the intrinsic value of B-shares is about $100 a share. Right now, it’s probably trading at a 20% discount.
*And in case you’re wondering Tilson tells us he bought a little BSX recently but his three largest positions are Berkshire, General Growth and Iridium .
CALL THE CLOSE:
Gary Kaminsky: I think Europe gets worse and I’m adding to my position in the EPV
Guy Adami: I’d take a look at Palm .
Jon Najarian: I think we go higher into the close.
Steve Cortes: Keep cool I think we go higher.
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Trader disclosure: On February 25, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (GS), (AGU), (C), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Kaminsky Owns (EPV); Cortes Is Long Canadian Dollar And Short Treasuries Through Put Options Spread; Najarian Owns (BRCD) Calls; Najarian Owns (KO) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (MYL), (MYL) Puts; Najarian Owns (NTAP) Calls; Levy Is Short (AAPL) Call Spread; Jon Najarian Owns (AAPL), Is Short (AAPL) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (BAC), Is Short (BAC) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (C), Is Short (C) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (GS), Is Short (GS) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (JPM), Is Short (JPM) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (PALM), Is Short (PALM) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (RIMM), Is Short (RIMM) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (TJX), Is Short (TJX) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (WFC), Is Short (WFC) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (WMT), Is Short (WMT) Calls; Jon Najarian Is Long (AMSC) Through Options; Jon Najarian Is Long (SII) Through Options; Jon Najarian Is Long (MIL) Through Options; Jon Najarian Is Long (CROX) Through Options; Jon Najarian Is Long (CMC) Through Options; Jon Najarian Is Short (DLTR) Through Options; Jon Najarian Is Short (NFLX) Through Options
For Dennis Gartman
Funds Managed By Gartman Are Long Gold
Funds Managed By Gartman Are Short Euros, British Pound Sterling, Yen
Funds Managed By Gartman Own (GLD)
For Brad Hintz
Hintz Owns Morgan Stanley And Discover
Hintz Owns (CME)
Accounts Over Which Bernstein And/Or Affiliates Exercise Investment Discretion Own More Than 1% Of Barclays PLC, Credit Suisse Group, (C), (GS), (JPM), (MS), (BAC)
Barclays PLC, (C), Credit Suisse Group, (GS), (JPM), (MS), (BAC) UBS AG Are Or In Past 12 Months Were Clients Of Bernstein (Non-Investment Banking-Securities Related Services), Bernstein Received Compensation
An Affiliate Of Bernstein Received Compensation From Barclays PLC, (C), Credit Suisse Group, (JPM), (GS), (MS), UBS AG (Non-Investment Banking-Securities-Related Services)
Bernstein Or Affiliate Received Investment Banking Compensation From (C) In Past 12 Months
Bernstein Or Affiliate Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Compensation From Barclays PLC, (C), Credit Suisse Group, (GS), (JPM), (MS), (BAC) UBS AG In Next 3 Months
For Whitney Tilson
Funds Managed By Whitney Tilson Own (BRK.A), (BRK.B)
Funds Managed By Whitney Tilson Own (IRDM)
Tilson Owns (BRK.A), (BRK.B)
Tilson Owns (IRDM)
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