Trader Talk

Pisani: Technical Analysis Is Bullish

Seems slow, but there is underlying strength here. New highs in the Nasdaq, mid-cap, and small-cap indices. More optimism on Europe.

As we move into the anniversary of the March 2009 low, Lowry — the oldest technical analysis service — reminds us that, despite the better than 60 percent advance in the S&P 500 from the lows, there is "none of the signs usually associated with a maturing or aging advance. Whatever indications exist of a possibly weakening rally appear to be strictly short-term in nature."

They note that:

1) buying power (Demand) remains strong, while selling pressure (Supply) has been falling; these combined events are associated with a rising, not declining, trend.

2) Advance/decline lines are hitting new highs; this too is associated with continuing advances; a deterioration in the A/D line has typically preceded most market tops.

3) new highs, rather than declining, have been advancing and are near their October peaks.

This being technical analysis, they do note that "most short-term price momentum indicators are currently at levels that have corresponded with prior minor market tops."

Thoughts on today's trading:

1) Bulls have argued that stocks are a coiled spring set to move up on any increases in revenues. You can't help but think there is something to this when you look at SprintNextel : CFO Robert Brust said they may see some revenue growth in the next few quarters — hardly newsworthy, but the stock moves 5 percent!

2) Visa at a new high as they are having their annual investor day this week (Thursday).

3) traders note that McDonald's February same store sales (up 10.5 percent in Asia, a meager 0.6 percent rise in the U.S.) is a good indicator that the global recovery is not going to happen simultaneously...the recovery will happen at different speeds in different countries.

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