Trader Talk

Bad Day for IPOs

The Grecians will need a new formula. The 2 year Greek bond is over 11 percent; seems like IMF bailout is inevitable.

Stock futures are lower as Europe opened down. Stocks in Greece are down 3 percent; Portugal and Spain are down 3 percent. The U.S. dollar is stronger, commodities are lower.

Qualcomm and eBay are both down nearly 10 percent, as eBay gave 2010 guidance below analyst expectations, and Qualcomm forecast lower than expected revenue.


1) A poor day for IPOs: too many coming on one day, the result: all the names priced at the low end or below.

a) Alimera Sciences (ALIM) which develops treatments for eye diseases, priced 6.55 ml shares at $11.00, below the price talk of $15 to $17.

b) Codexis (CDXS), which is a developer of biocatalysts used in biofuels and was backed by Shell Oil, priced 6 million shares at $13, the low end of the $13-$15 price talk

c) DynaVox (DVOX), which makes speech generating devices, priced 9.4 ml shares at $15.00, the low end of the $15 to $17 price talk;

d) Global Geophysical (GGS) which prvodies high resolution seismic data for oil and gas exploration, price 7.5 ml shares at $12.00, below the price talk of $15 to $17.

e) Mitel Networks (MITL) priced 10.5 million shares at $14.00; way below the price talk of $18 to $20

2) Marriott (MAR) is up 2 percent after beating top and bottom line estimates. Although revenues per available room (REVPAR) still declined in the quarter, particularly due to continued weakness in North America, it fell less than expected.

Even more encouraging, sees improving REVPAR for the rest of the year (up 3 percent-6 percent in 2010). In fact, Chief Executive J.W. Marriott, Jr. saw improvement in occupancy and expects "higher room rates on the horizon."

Additionally, Q2 earnings are forecasted well above estimates ($0.25-$0.29 vs. $0.23 consensus), and the hotel also raised its full-year guidance to $0.95-$1.05 (vs. $0.96 consensus).

3) Railroad Union Pacific easily beat Q1 earnings estimates ($1.01 vs. $0.95. Stronger demand helped revenues rise more than expected. Volumes rose for the first time in 2 years led by a jump in revenue carloads of autos (up 56 percent) and chemicals (13 percent). Another good sign: the company said it has reduced the number of furloughed employees by nearly half and has also significantly reduced the number of stored locomotives and freight cars.

4) AutoNation reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings ($0.34 vs. $0.32 consensus) as revenues were also stronger than forecasted helped by stronger demand and higher prices. Vehicle sales were strong across the board as new car unit sales jumped 19 percent while used car unit sales rose 12 percent. Also encouraging: sales have rebounded in previously-troublesome Florida (revenues up 29 percent).

The disappointments:

5) Nokia plunges 14 percent after misses earnings estimates and reducing its 2010 margin guidance as increased competition from Research in Motion's BlackBerry and Apple's iPhone devices.

6) Motorola is down 2 percent and Ericsson is down 3 percent following Nokia's report.

7) Pepsico topped earnings estimates by a penny, but fell short of revenue expectations. Hurting its top line were 4 percent declines in volumes at its Americas beverage division as well as its European snacks and beverage unit. Offsetting that weakness was strong double-digit growth in emerging markets like China and India.

For the year, the company expects earnings of $4.12-$4.19 (vs. consensus $4.17).

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