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Research and Markets: 2Q10 Italy Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Italy Will Have 93.3 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014

DUBLIN, May 10, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Research and Markets ( has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "2Q10 Italy Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Italy will have 93.3 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with Market Share of TIM Declining to 33%" to their offering.

Mobile Operator Forecast on Italy provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Italian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2011. Operators covered for Italy include: Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), Vodafone Group Plc, Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA, and Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the worlds population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models.

These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary: Subscriber growth in Hungary's wireless market is slowing down +1.0% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2009 The industry average subscriber growth (YoY) was 1.0% in 4Q.2009, down from 1.8% in 4Q.2008. The number of total mobile subscribers in Hungary reached 11.3 million and the wireless penetration rate was 113% in 4Q.2009. Subscriber growth (YoY) at Pannon turned negative to -3.2% in 4Q.2009. Subscriber growth rate (YoY) at Vodafone declined from 11.6% in 4Q.2008 to 1.2% in 4Q.2009.

ARPUs continue to decline across operators in Hungary -5.2% industry average ARPU growth in 4Q.2009 The industry average monthly ARPU declined by -5.2% (YoY) to HUF 4,000 in 4Q.2009. T-Mobile's ARPU growth rate (YoY) in 4Q.2009 was -3.1% (down from 2.4% in 4Q.2008). ARPU growth rates (YoY) at Pannon and Vodafone were -7.3% and -3.0% respectively in 4Q.2009.

Minutes of Use per Subscriber have declined across operators -8.9% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2009 The operator-wide MOU/sub growth (YoY) came in at -8.9% in 4Q.2009, down from 1.8% in 4Q.2008. The industry average MOU/Sub in 4Q.2009 was 153 minutes per month. Among the operators, Pannon saw the highest level of network usage in 4Q.2009 at MOU/Sub of 168 minutes per month (down -4.0% YoY). That put Vodafone in the second place with 163 minutes per month (down -9.9% YoY). T-Mobile's MOU/Sub also declined by -9.9% (YoY) to reach 137 minutes per month in 4Q.2009.

EBITDA growth at T-Mobile improved significantly in the latest quarter 0% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2009 EBITDA growth rate (YoY) at T-Mobile increased from -13.3% in 4Q.2008 to 5.5% in 4Q.2009. Pannon (Telenor)'s EBITDA growth remained negative, but it still increased from -15.7% in 4Q.2008 to -8.8% in 4Q.2009.

So what is IEMRs Forecast? Hungary will have 12.8 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014 According to our forecasting model, total mobile subscribers in Hungary will increase from 11.3 million in 2009 to 12.8 million in 2014. T-Mobile will continue to be the largest operator in Hungary's wireless market. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 5.12 million in 2009 to about 5.5 million in 2014. We also forecast that Pannon (Telenor) will have about 4 million subscribers and Vodafone will have about 3.2 million subscribers by the end of 2014.

Vodafone's subscriber market share in Hungary's wireless market will be increasing over the next five years Given the latest quarter data, our model predicts that Vodafone's subscriber market share will increase from 23.0% in 2009 to 25.5% in 2014. On the other hand, we expect that T-Mobile's market share will decrease from 45.2% to about 43% and Pannon's market share will decrease slightly from 31.9% to about 31.5% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.

We expect ARPU levels in Hungary's wireless market to decline from 2009 to 2014 We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from approximately HUF 3,800 in 2009 to HUF 3,500 in 2014. Vodafone will continue to have higher ARPU levels than T-Mobile and Pannon. Our model predicts that monthly ARPUs at T-Mobile, Pannon, and Vodafone will be approximately HUF 3,120, HUF 3,460 and HUF 4,170 respectively in 2014.

T-Mobile will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Pannon (Telenor) We forecast that the operator-wide average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue; only for Pannon and T-Mobile) will improve from 47.6% in 2009 to 50.3% in 2014. T-Mobile will continue to have a higher level of profitability than Pannon. Our model forecasts that T-Mobile's EBITDA margin will be 55.0% in 2014 (up from 50.8% in 2009) while Pannon's EBITDA margin remains at approximately 43% - 44% over the next five years.

Companies Mentioned: Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) Vodafone Group Plc Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited For more information visit SOURCE: Research and Markets CONTACT: Research and Markets Laura Wood, Senior Manager, U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907 Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716 Copyright Business Wire 2010 -0- KEYWORD: Italy

Europe INDUSTRY KEYWORD: Technology