CNBC Stock Blog

Bond Market Rally Is Ending: Rates Strategist


What is the best trade on Treasurys? Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak, and George Goncalves, head of U.S. interest rates strategy in the Americas at Nomura Securities, shared their insights.

Time to Short Bonds?

“We’re coming toward the end of a bond market rally that has been in motion for over 30 years,” Goncalves told CNBC.

“The question is, how long can rates stay low and does the Fed have the ability to keep them anchored?”

Goncalves said investors should lighten up on their bond holdings and wait for yields to pop.

Greenhaus' View:

In the meantime, Greenhaus said now is not a good time to short bonds.

“We are shifting from the secular bull market in bonds into the next secular bear...and timing that shift will be very difficult, especially when you have every class of investor increasing their exposure to bonds, and Ben Bernanke with an unlimited paper machine coming in and buying what will be at least $1 to $2 trillion worth of additional Treasurys over the next couple of years.”

(Read an opposing view: Shorting Bonds Will Be 'Trade of the Decade': Doug Kass.)

Scorecard—What He Said:

  • Greenhaus' Previous Appearance on CNBC (Sept. 23, 2010)

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Monday's Top Dow Laggards (as of this writing):

JPMorgan Chase



Bank of America

General Electric


No immediate information was available for Goncalves or Greenhaus.