Predictions 2011

Predictions 2011: Matt Nesto On State Budgets And Banks


1. Cities and/or states will default.

The shifting landscape of the debt crisis will tear a path through already cash-strapped state and local budgets. With no printing press to turn to and the Federal spigot turned off, the combined crush of rising rates, angry voters, rigid unions and pensioners, as well as constitutional mandates that require balances budgets, will mean at least five states and/or major metro issuers crying "no mas" and defaulting.

2. The R&W problem will hit banks hard.

The Representations & Warranties made by banks about the mortgage-back securities they packagedwill rise up and stalk them like the gazillion-dollar zombies they are, causing considerable pain. The terms "R&W" and ''putback at par'' will become as familiar to the layman as ''quantitative easing'' is today.

3. QE2 begets QE3 and QE4.

Like in the movies, don't be surprised to see Fed boss Ben Balboa (or is it, Rocky Bernanke?) rise up off the canvas and muscle round after round of freshly minted money into the markets. The new Republican majority in Congress will lambaste him like never before but will grudgingly concede that Ben himself has become a bubble and is now personally too big to fail.

4.Hit by a BRIC.

The depreciated dollar will be tolerated only so long, at which time our foreign friends will take matters into their own hands and slap tariffs on to US goods flowing into their countries. Add trade war to our list of current conflicts

5. Cut lose the juice.

Summer-time brownouts and shovel-ready sluggishness will spark a national effort to build a nuke in every state—50 fast-tracked, nuclear power plants to create jobs and juice needed for a great future.