Trader Talk

Greek Vote? Here's the Real Market Story

Let's move past the Greek vote...the Greek government will survive its vote tonight, despite the unhappy crowds assembled in front of Parliament (they have good reason to be unhappy).

On the floor of the NYSE, traders are already changing the topic: how likely is it that the Fed will downgrade its outlook on the economy?

One thing's for sure: they do not want to rock the boat, they will look to make this statement as bland as possible.

But will they really reiterate that "the economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace and overall conditions in the labor market are improving gradually"? Can they really say that when the evidence of a slowdown is clear, even if it's not quite a double dip yet?

And how can they not acknowledge that every time the Fed turns off the spigots, the economy slows down?

Of course, they did downgrade their growth outlook last time and Mr. Bernanke was not exactly bullish in his recent speech in Atlanta, so you could argue slightly more negative language would not be a big surprise.

The story is made more complicated because we now have a press briefing that will be just as important as the statement.

Here's the funny thing: the Greek vote is critical, the Fed comment is critical because the economy is slowing...yet stock trading doesn't reflect that.

The last 36 hours have been among the quietest of the year. Volumes remain anemic: retail trading volumes are 15 percent for June so far, compared to the same period last month. And the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), after a brief, three-month spike on Thursday, is now back into its long range average of 18-19.


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