Although the S&P 500 has fallen almost 170 points this month to close at 1,177 on Wednesday, one strategist thinks it could drop further—while another thinks the index could bounce back by the end of the year.
Doug Cliggott, U.S. equities strategist for Credit Suisse, said he has lowered his year-end forecast for the S&P 500 from 1275 to 1100 because of weak current growth, a softening in August of leading indicators of future growth and, most importantly, further tightening of fiscal policy in Europe and the U.S. in the future.
"All of these pieces point to much weaker growth ahead, and we think that means lower earnings and a softer equity market," Cliggott said.
David Sowerby, chief market analyst at Loomis Sayles, disagrees. He said he thinks the index could surge as much as 12 to 14 percent, to end the year in the range of 1300 to 1325.
"While, yes, the fiscal policy is very frustrating, what's still going to trump that is three years of aggressive monetary easing and probably low interest rates still to come," Sowerby said.
Sowerby added that he thinks stocks have already priced in 1 to 2 percent real GDP and a profit recession.
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Disclosure information was not available for Doug Cligott, David Sowerby or his company.