Trader Talk

The 3-Day Stock Market Syndrome

Europe closes up, U.S. posts modest gain: can we break the three-day syndrome? It's a problem: since dropping in the beginning of August, the market has a hard time putting together consecutive strings of up or down days.

Europe is up, because they're getting more aggressive: the Bank of England expanded its bond buying program, and the ECB has extended its bank loan program to 1 full year. "That's a clear indication liquidity issues are serious — zero interbank lending," one trader said to me.

The European Union leadership summit on October 13-14 is now becoming the focal point of euro-traders: will they start talking with some semblance of solidarity?

Meanwhile, in the U.S., focus is now shifting to the home front. Two events:

1) expectations seem to be a bit higher for nonfarm payrolls tomorrow. Consensus is currently about 60,000, but plenty are throwing around whisper numbers of 80,000 and above.

2) earnings season begins next week. There are so many shorts that a decent number tomorrow could create a squeeze going into the middle of next week. Yes, Ingersoll Randwas a disappointment, and not a great precursor.

But we are not at the high end of any trading range: we are at the low end. And if there is any more visibility in Europe...which we will be able to detect in the next week or so...the start of earnings season could be more positive than the permabears think.

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