Hard to ignore the action in gold , which climbed against all the major currencies on Monday. Considering the sharp rally in stocks, you’d think gold would pull back, right?
After all, if risk appetite increases, the interest in safe havens should decrease – and gold has been quite the safe haven.
But that didn’t seem to happen on Monday. Why?
Esteemed commodities trader Dennis Gartman has a few ideas.
The first is that the correlation between stocks and gold may be changing. “For the past 6 months, as crude oil climbed so did the stock market.” Perhaps that’s what’s happening now.
Possible but not probable, says Gartman.
The more plausible reason, he says, is simply that investors just don’t believe the Merkel – Sarkozy plan has any bite.
As you likely know, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy promised to unveil a comprehensive new package to ease the euro zone's debt crisis, though details won’t be made public until the G20 summit which is scheduled to begin Nov 3rd. Gartman thinks if the market truly believed there was a viable plan coming, then gold would have declined.
But it climbed.
And not only did it climb in dollar terms, gold also gained in euro terms. Gartman doesn't think that would have happened if the markets were truly convinced that the crisis in Europe had turned a corner.
”The plan will requires changes in The Treaty of Maastricht and The Treaty of Lisbon Gartman reminds.
And there's more.
"The changes have to be voted upon and voted upon unanimously," he adds. "I think the plan is quite silly and so does the market. That's why they bid gold up," he concludes.
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Trader disclosure: On Oct 10, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Seymour owns AKS; Seymour owns BAC; Seymour owns INTC; Seymour owns POT; Terranova is long VRTS; Terranova is long LQD; Terranova is long MUB; Terranova is long FCX; Terranova is long TBT; Terranova is long OXY; Terranova is long HOS; Terranova is long F; Terranova is long LULU; Terranova is long OIH; Terranova is long CAT; Terranova is long AXP; Terranova is long EMC; Terranova is long WFC; Terranova is long AAPL; Terranova is long IBM; Terranova is long Silver December $40 puts; Weiss is long RIMM; Weiss is long QCOM; Weiss is long HPQ; Weiss is long EUO; Weiss is long NIHD; Weiss is long COP; Weiss is long KEG; Weiss is long YHOO; Kinahan is short SPY thru options; Kinahan long CSCO; Nations is long SPY
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CNBC.com with wires.