Trader Talk

Bad G20 News Drags Down US Stocks

The euro weakened, and Italian bond yields rose as we got our first real news from the G20 summit. It wasn't good: German Chancellor Angela Merkel said hardly any countries in the G20 agreed to participate in the EFSF.

The EFSF does not have enough money. The ECB has repeatedly resisted making its own bond buying program permanent, despite the request of many players. Many were simply assuming the EFSF would attract additional firepower, either in the form of a special purpose vehicle or additional direct funds. That seems less likely.

In addition, implementation of the EFSF is taking some time. Finance ministers will be discussing details — and hopefully finalizing its structure — in December.

Additional funds are not a dead issue. Many are turning to the IMF, but even here the early headlines are not good: Merkel said the G20 has not agreed on additional resources for the IMF.

Additional money may be forthcoming, but it may come at a steep price. Emerging market countries want more say in how the IMF is run in exchange for contributions.

End game for Berlusconi? The news sounds positive: Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, at the G20 meeting, agreed to have the IMFmonitor his economic reforms. It sounds positive because Italy needs someone to make sure something will happen.

But it may spell the end of him. His coalition partners are ready to desert him. This week two deputies from his own party defected to another party. He appears to no longer have a majority in parliament: 214 votes in the 630-seat lower house. A confidence vote is coming soon.

But I'm sure we'll have a solution by the second meeting. Headline of the day: Brazil's President, Dilma Rousseff said that the "G20 Could Not Resolve World Problems At One Meeting."

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