Trader Talk

Is the US Finally Disconnecting from Europe?

Is the U.S. finally disconnecting from Europe? A weak euro, European markets closing mostly down, poor results from a UniCredit rights offering, reports Spain may have to tap assistance from the EFSF and the IMF, a tepid German bund auction.

Sounds like it would be a poor day in the U.S., right? Well...wrong.

If we would have had the above headlines two months ago, the Dow would likely be down at least 150 points or more today.

But it's up slightly: the advance/decline line is about equal, and the U.S. markets have been rising since the European close at 11:30am ET.

What's up? This goes to the choices global investors appear to be making on global asset allocation: they are choosing the U.S.

The S&P 500 was flat last year, far outperforming most other markets in Latin America, Europe and Asia. Yesterday, in the first full day of trading, volume at the NYSE was heavy at the open all the way into the European close, after which volume dropped off — indicating our European brethren were buying stocks here.

Now a day or two of buying, particularly at the start of the year, does not necessarily a trend make. But can I be just a little bit encouraged that we don't fall apart every time the euro dips?

Santa Claus rally intact: the last five trading days of the old year, first two of the new year are traditionally positive: the S&P is up 1.6 percent on average since 1969. So far, the S&P is up 1.9 percent for this period.

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